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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (16606)	6/9/1999 10:23:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Haim; Thanx for mentioning the low VIX, here is some ugly stuff I sent Monty. --------------- Mind you it's mostly short term, Monty sends me the 10, 20, 200 DMA every day I keep a spread sheet on them, it's a work in progress..but when indexes go UP , while the 10, 20 , 200 all go down it's very very narrow few stocks that took the indexes UP.. nothing advanced over it's 10, 20, or 200.. except in the NDX and S&P400..in fact they went the other way -------------- So with the VIX low..it's a perfect set up to fall. One last thing the TRIN did it's rise, and the tick spiked ( on a few stocks ) all those signs generally precede a down day.. ------------------- So here is what I sent Monty. Monty; I got the data thanx, haven't plugged it in yet but can see plain as day the S&P 500 is set up for a fall, or looks that way to me. THE index was up , and the 10, 20, & 200 were all down.. On the SMALL 600 the 10 day was down as the 20 went up.. sign the leaders backed off..on a day she was up too.. UP days in the index if they are worth a shit should at least show some improvement in the over 10 DMA.. not a drop..in other words some stocks below the 20 DMA moved up but them above the 10 DMA moved down..not a sign of any leadership. The RUT was also weak all the way across..10, 20, 200 DMA's all down and again what makes it alarming is the frigging INDEX WAS UP.. I can't buy that crap as healthy. Crossed swords all over again..the bulls better find a damm cave to get in. -------------- THE NDX and S&P400 didn't look as bad as the rest..but shit they won't hold when every thing else goes to hell. What's helping both of them is they share a few of the tulip stocks..& some of the smaller nuts.. Jim ----------- Ps to all I'm not just negative I'm short, so consider I'm talking a position if you will, but I have my money where my mouth is. I'm giving up on the Profunds , shit I can short the qqq as good as they can. The advantage I saw was not as good as it first looked, and it's to much hassel. techstocks.com ------------- Jim

To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (16606)	6/10/1999 8:20:00 AM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Haim, re: low VIX: this is a tough one to call; it allows for two contradictory interpretations. the bullish one would be that the sellers of put options are prepared to accept lower premiums, meaning they do not expect a meaningful decline. the bearish view would be that the low VIX indicates complacency. unfortunately the VIX at 24,20 is not at an extreme, which makes it even harder to interpret. my gut feeling(sorry<g>) is that it should be higher, in view of the weak bond market. as i have mentioned in my latest put/call ratio update, i do not entirely trust the recent bullish signals given by the options indicators, mainly because of the deteriorating interest rate picture. regards, hb