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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RBlatch who wrote (46197)	6/9/1999 11:27:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

RBlatch; ie: MEXP - PGEI... nothings changed. patience my son.... >>>VBG<<< ! MEXP spent a tremendous amount of money on acquisitions, upgraded seismic (big $) on their Mississippi Salt Dome project and they have that sleeper project out west on the Blackfeet Indian Resv property .... they have the cash to continue their drilling program at a reasonable pace - rising nat gas prices will have literally reversed the write downs that caused the bank loan covenant violations and they should not have a problem refinancing with BOM, or most likely finding new credit lines via refinancing the BOM loan. The ace in the hole (virtually nullifying the infamous Razorbak Altman BK model (vbg) is that the Miller Family stands by with more than ample ready cash to execute a property buy -back agreement - able to inject any and all additional cash; when & if needed... so there is virtually no realworld scenario where they fail... This was a ''trading opportunity'' with the huge spike - the impatient, individual investor money is now restless - not williing to wait 6-12-18 months for a 2-3-4-6 X'r and sold out. This is a buy & hold company, that may have some volatile trading opportunities on any pending news of refinancing - but , overall this is a longterm story... thier drillbit upside won't even come close to begin playing out for 15+ months... I see a $12-15 stock in 3 years. But, we could get an instant ''double'' off of merely the refinancing news... watch, it will be preceeded by a big selloff/shakeout play...(VBG). PGEI is a longterm development story as well.... interesting that EVER is raising cash... they could be a buyer of PGEI given PGEI's similar coal bed methane play and this would not surprise me if PGEI sold some properties - some working interests, or even all of the company... They are living within their cash flow ( very good financial managment) - any acceleration in cap ex spending and development will be met positively in this present nat gas pricing enviroment imho... another buy & hold... its day will come and this is a 2-3 year story stock. I still own a nice position in both - not adding (unless they sell off to ridiculous levels) and not selling.... these are 2-3 year developement plays imho... both companies have some very positive longterm prospects. .... lots of interesting micro plays; I like MHR & VEI as well. PS - no one ever talks about NBL here - instead of APC APA BR - who are fairly priced - at least NOT cheap here imho; NBL is a large cap value... still reasonable for those that like conservative lg cap plays and sells presently at a substantial discount to BR APA APC... MRO & NBL may be a good combo . HSE is a sleeper - nat gas pure play & has a substantial cash flow upside in late 1999-2000... very leveraged upside to rising nat gas prices - as much upside leverage to rising gas prices as virtually any stock - a sleeper, watch for and buy stongly on any dips here.... I like UPR & OEI (I think much higher upside than BR APA APC from here) for largeish names, XTO HSE for mid/small caps, RRC & CRK for small cap; and PGEI MEXP for micro's. MRO is a must own for an integrated E&P - very leveraged to rising commodity prices here...KMG on any substantial dip is a buy as well. Unlike the service & driller stocks - the E&P's will show a positive Q2 & 3 increase over last year in earnings in many cases. PS - did theStreet.Com ''diss'' ole' FGI or what ? ....kinda played ''taps'' for deepwater Rig construction in their article... still holding a lot of HLX and a little FGI - thinking this one over.... if we could just get those shorts to cover...(VBG) - or at least retire sooner than 2 years down the road...