To: Ira Player who wrote (5141 ) 6/10/1999 1:18:00 AM From: Maurice Winn Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 29987
*Iridium* Ira, sure, Iridium will continue and sell their minutes and I've explained that before. But they have only about 1.2bn minutes to sell. Globalstar has 12bn minutes to sell. ICO has 15bn or more minutes to sell. Ellipso and others have minutes to sell too. [Assuming these others actually go ahead]. If those others all go ahead [which seems unlikely] then the Iridium minutes are a drop in the bucket and even if sell all their minutes, it won't have a major impact on the market. Of course they won't sell all their minutes because their handsets will be too expensive. Also, it might be that their operating costs exceed the residual value of the network so even given away, the assets might not be worth anything. However it is calculated, it is now of academic interest only. [Maybe a slight exaggeration, but I think the point is fair enough - it won't damage Globalstar to any significant extent]. There will absolutely be NO second constellation. It's game over and minimisation of loss is all that's left to do. Here is another reason why it's game over. Few will buy a handset in a system about to be switched off, since the handsets are so expensive. So it is a self-fullfilling lack of customers - the chicken and egg situation and nobody wants to be the egg which is turned into an omelette. The solution to that would be for Iridium to buy the handsets from Motorola and LEASE them to subscribers, therefore carrying the risk. But who is going to fund those handsets? Iridium is out of money and nobody is going to want to put the money in for 100,000 handsets x $2,000 = $200 million. I can't see any way for it to be a financial success. I can't really see it continuing in service even as a liquidated asset due to the operating costs and handset costs to keep it running. Also, replacement satellites and continued engineering to improve technical performance will add to the burden. The main issue right now is ICO. Will they also waste $$billions in shareholders' funds? Or will they wait and see for half a year? If ICO goes ahead, then that will cost Globalstar heaps because they will have HEAPS of minutes to sell and that WILL depress the value of minutes in space. ICO better be planning for THAT in their calculations of return on investment or they'll get a nasty surprise. Forget about Iridium, it's now of academic interest only. Watch out for the maniacs running ICO. They seem determined to destroy a lot more $$billions and that will damage Globalstar's investment. Those ICO rights buyers who were silly enough to stump up more money should be demanding a refund NOW before the issue, which was extended, closes and their money is stuck. Maurice