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Technology Stocks : Concurrent Computer (CCUR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam who wrote (9328)	6/9/1999 9:07:00 PM
From: ENOTS	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 21143

Time Warner to Kick Off Historic VOD Test in Hawaii from Kagan's VOD Investor™; No. 10, May 31, 1999 Circle Honolulu on the map. It could earn a place in history for the launching pad of video-on-demand by the medium's most ardent devotee. Time Warner's Oceanic (Hawaii) system will kick off a short VOD test in June, a limited launch in September and a wide-scale rollout next year. We believe Concurrent Computer Corp. (NASDAQ-CCUR-$5.91) will be selected to provide video servers and software; the system will run on Scientific-Atlanta's Explorer 2000 digital set-tops. (Time Warner has plans to launch VOD elsewhere with CCUR-rival SeaChange International.) For Time Warner, the MSO most vocal about the potential of VOD, the Oceanic effort signals the beginning of a much-awaited deployment that is rooted in the company's 1994-1996 Full Service Network experiment in Orlando. Although the MSO hasn't publicly announced the Oceanic deployment yet, plans are under way to start installing equipment in June, connecting employee homes in July and launching to about 12,000 digital subs in September. Assuming all goes well, the service reach will extend to all digitally connected Oceanic homes in 2000. Applying a model of 10% peak simultaneous VOD usage among VOD-capable HHs, the Concurrent servers will have to be capable of churning out 1,200 concurrent video streams. That figure will rise as Time Warner ups the marketable VOD homes in 2000. We put the deal at about $2 mil. for Concurrent initially, rising to $6 mil. to $8 mil. as the project picks up steam. The project also speaks volumes about Time Warner's digital deployment. In early May, Time Warner privately celebrated the completion of "Pegasus 1.0," its digital set-top specification that is now incorporated into S-A's Explorer 2000 line and Pioneer's Voyager set-tops. That means the MSO is ready to roll with digital--finally. We're expecting Time Warner to quietly push digital video into as many as 36 markets and 200,000 subscribing homes by year-end. Austin, TX, and Tampa, FL, could be among the first officially announced VOD sites. With 85% of its cable systems expected to be built out to a 750MHz, two-way architecture by year-end, Time Warner is poised to deliver VOD its largest base of subscribers. At 15% digital penetration, we project TW could amass 1.5 mil. or more two-way digital subs within 12-18 months. It has been a long haul for Time Warner and its suppliers, but not unlike what AT&T (then TCI) underwent with its key vendor, General Instrument, in 1996. As AT&T/GI, and now Time Warner/S-A have learned, the process of going to digital is a huge technical challenge.