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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (7516)	6/9/1999 11:46:00 PM
From: Michael Burry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78659

And as far as BELFB itself, it looks to me like it trades every day. Classic. BTW, does anyone here know how to value Lockheed Martin and the defense stocks? Re: Compaq, I'm looking too, but I sense the recent insider trades are just for show. Dell is probably a category killer (low cost producer - tells you where I think the PC industry is headed) over time, and Compaq is the category leader that's getting killed, with a lot of room to fall. As for the insider trades, some of these guys are buying back just a tiny fraction of what they sold. After looking a bit, the best I can say about it is that there's a management change, an activist board, still the leading PC brand, and the stock is at 52 week lows that have been tested before without giving up ground. Mike

To: Paul Senior who wrote (7516)	6/10/1999 1:13:00 AM
From: James Clarke	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78659

I had the privilege to spend an hour tonight with one of the fathers of value investing, Francis Nicholson. In 1960, at Provident Capital in Philadelphia, he published the first statistical study that showed that low P/E investing produces above market returns. The man is 99 years old, and started his investing career in 1923. His mind is as strong as my own, and he can still race me up a flight of stairs. Everybody I know who has ever spent time with this man admires him, and now I add myself to that list. I will pass on to you three points of wisdom he gave me. When he retired from Provident in 1965 (4 years before I was BORN!) he made a list of admonitions to his analysts. Here are three of them. Print these out and put them on your wall. 1) When you read a balance sheet or look at a company, ask yourself whether you are seeing what is actually there or what you have been conditioned to see. 2) After you "finish" your analysis of a stock, specifically identify the factor in your analysis which is the most likely factor to be wrong. 3) Remember that somebody is selling you the stock you are buying, or buying the stock that you are selling. Before making the recommendation, be able to state IN WORDS YOUR "OPPONENT" WOULD USE HIMSELF the case against your position. (i.e. don't just say this is a no-brainer, anybody who would sell this stock at this price is an idiot) I pass that on not for debate, but just to pass on the words of a man who was an investor in 1929. He is one of the few we have left who understand that period of market history. And to anticipate the question he gets every day - yes, he does think that today looks a lot like it did in 1929. JJC

To: Paul Senior who wrote (7516)	6/10/1999 2:18:00 PM
From: Neil H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78659

Paul Re: the volume - My comment wasn't geared primarily at value stocks. Based on my experiences I usually stay away from stocks that trade very little each day. BELFB appears to average less than 20k a day. That said, they do supply an industry with great growth going forward. I have owned ASND, NT, Cisco, xyln and FORE and now own COMS, so have followed the industry closely for 2+ years. I have put BELFB on watch list and will follow closely. Looks like it will do well. Any thoughts on JACO? Regards Neil