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Biotech / Medical : Biogen -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: P.M.Freedman who wrote (1006)	6/9/1999 11:32:00 PM
From: William Partmann	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1686

P.M., are you long, short, or just volunteering your time trying to educate us?

To: P.M.Freedman who wrote (1006)	6/10/1999 8:52:00 AM
From: Harold Engstrom	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 1686

PMF, your math works for the most part. $131MM to $300MM per quarter growth over 3 years is pretty significant Avonex sales growth. Add to that growing royalties. Add in Amevive sales starting in 2001 and VLA4 royalties in 2002. Antova sales may begin in 2002 as well. Predictions about Amevive, Antova and VLA4 are just SWAGs now, but the consensus seems to be that all three have the potential to dwarf Avonex sales. There is more to the pipeline than these as well - CVT124 and 2 others. I have not heard anyone predict 1 million MS patients on Avonex in the near or distant future.

To: P.M.Freedman who wrote (1006)	6/12/1999 10:00:00 PM
From: Walkingshadow	Respond to of 1686

Thank you for the analysis---well thought out. I have only recently been delving into this company. If you look at their pipeline from their website, they are in Phase IV (and Phase II/III ???) with Hirulog, but this is a collaborative effort with The Medicines Company, so profits would be shared (anyone know the structure of the agreement???). However, I believe that if they are that far along, then FDA approval could come within a year or two, and possibly sooner in Europe. This could positively impact revenues, obviously. But most of their other products are years away---VLA-4 inhibitor is in Phase I, for example, and there is nothing besides Hirulog in Phase III. Comments?? Thanks, Walkingshadow