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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul V. who wrote (30926)	6/10/1999 8:51:00 AM
From: Katherine Derbyshire	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

The BtB typically peaks at the beginning of a cycle, as I've pointed out before. It's not clear whether Wall Street understands this, though. 300mm shouldn't really have that much impact on orders--the equipment was going to get bought anyway, this just changes the mix. Individual equipment selling prices and manufacturing costs will both go up, but equipment company margins are likely to stay about the same and the higher capacity of 300mm may reduce the absolute number of pieces of equipment sold. Substantial advantages will accrue to the equipment companies able to make the transition fastest. Lithography tools are the most likely bottleneck, so the litho sector would be worth watching carefully. So far, this is looking more like a "typical" cycle than 1996-97 did. Assuming underlying semiconductor revenues continue to improve, we should have about two years of good news ahead before the next down cycle. And yes, we can expect the boom/bust pattern to repeat itself. You'll know it's time to get out when the pundits start saying "it's different this time." Katherine

To: Paul V. who wrote (30926)	6/11/1999 9:37:00 AM
From: Tito L. Nisperos Jr.	Respond to of 70976

Paul V, RE "Richard, Gottfried, Katherine, Big Bucks, John L., Kumar and Tito, Based on the recent posts by Brian regarding Intc, Mot and Other Semi Equipment maker going immediately to the 300mm (12") wafer and copper chip, what are your projections regarding the pro's and con's on AMAT's future orders, EPS and price? My concern is the comparison between the high BTB, orders and shipments in the future against the monthly high orders against the previous year (1998-99) and how Wall Street may react when it sees lower BTB numbers due to higher shipments even with higher order?" Lower BTB ratio due to higher shipments is good at a time when AMAT is recovering from Earnings Blues. With its customers finally going to 300mm (12") wafer to produce More and thus sell More of the Chips that are dwindling in price, AMAT & Company should be kept busy for a while. For the BEARs who never learn from History and keep on the Habit of wishing the Bull Market Tops in Spring are going to be disappointed again. Why is there a so called Market rally in Summer?... Well if we force the Market to stoop down in Spring, then there must be at least a Market Straightening Up in Summer --- it's as simple as that. History Repeats itself because we can not help it...