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To: upanddown who wrote (46200)	6/10/1999 6:57:00 AM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Japan's economy grew at a decent 1.9% rate during the latest quarter reinforcing the idea that Asia is on the mend. Their stock market soared 3% on the news, but upward pressure on US bond yields intensified.

To: upanddown who wrote (46200)	6/10/1999 10:53:00 AM
From: Rob Shilling	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

John, that NGL part of the equation always confuses me too. But from the numbers you posted, they show 126 million barrels of drawdown in the first quarter. In the second and third quarters they show around 50 million barrels each for a grand total of 226 million barrels through the third quarter. This should already be enough to eliminate the glut and this is before the big draw in the 4th quarter. Finally, I suspect that non-OPEC supply is overestimated and demand is underestimated. Just a little bit of error here could add to the drawdown in a big way. Also, just because the EIA starts to factor in cheating going into the 4th quarter does not mean it will happen :).