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Biotech / Medical : ARIAD Pharmaceuticals -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike McFarland who wrote (558)	6/10/1999 7:33:00 AM
From: Mike McFarland	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4474

201-306--which takes us up to one year ago: See the Lehmann report. The analyst expects a succession of positives, starting within a short time-span. Continued insider buying - The timing of Ariad's recent price swoon seems particularly interesting since Gilman et al. (i.e. Ariad) have published 2 papers in the last 3 months: Maybe, after start of the Rapamycin PI phase, market will start thinking about what they have accomplished. Management seems good in ARIA but the pay off is 3yrs.+ away and the market is looking for earnings in these uncertain times. In the last, January 26 1997, issue of Forbes... Ariad and the Hoechst-Ariad Genomics Center are mentioned in this article. Looks like $4 will buy you $1/share/year of ARIAD's R&D spending, Lehman's Price Target $ 11 I also agree with you that it will be a while before they will be able to collect on this technology. After reading the 10q it looks like the company is assured of survival til 2002. Will it have products to market by then? ARIAD's GENE expression technolgy featured at the American Society Of Gene Therapy Meeting There was an apparent downgrade of ARIA from strong buy to hold. Before the 25th Ariad had all strong buys, while now there remains two strong buys and one hold. and this one is from me...notice--unsuspecting, he goes up to the watering hole for another drink I guess I am going to have to break my rule of selling at a loss of 20%, cause I'm there now, maybe twice that for biotech stocks, ah the slippery slope, time to get some more? Something fishy going on? --Mike

To: Mike McFarland who wrote (558)	6/10/1999 1:10:00 PM
From: scaram(o)uche	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4474

>> I Hope this little exercise isn't pissing anybody off << I think it's a great exercise. However, since you've hit on one of my classic bad calls, I'd like to return to an old theme...... My style of investing in biotech...... find interesting, leveraged companies and invest early. Research them like heck, find out that they stink before the next guy and bail. If they don't stink, ride it out, making a basket of the leveraged suckers. So..... you know when I bailed. It ticked you off for a bit until you saw my earlier "warning sign" posts that were highly critical of management. It is always embarrassing to have said such glowing stuff about a company that subsequently manages itself into the ground. Again, very useful exercise. I encourage more of it on more threads..... it is instructive, first, and..... I suspect more along the lines of your motive..... it demos how much the company still has going for it, if not from a near-term investment stance. It will be good to see you hit your trading groove again. When you first landed in the microcaps, it was great to watch you artfully move the cash around. Here's wishing you that sort of luck again. Great post. Pick the AGPH, GLIA or MLNM thread next, please. ;-)