Tm "exposed" from the Goodboy's Greatest Hits Collection:
(Warning, this post is a repeat and it is very long. It may also disturb those who thinks TM is unbiased)
From: Goodboy Thursday, Feb 18 1999 4:57PM ET
Reply # of 9398
You don't really read this thread huh? You sure got balls with that long drivel of a post and then say you don't recall TM every saying CCUR's server could not compete. There is a written record here that is easily searchable. It is not hard to find his statements about Ncube being the leader for residential, CCUR limited to 100 streams (his excuse on this was that this was what it said on their web site) and the cable MSO's embracing NT for VOD. All three very wrong. All three were the subject of much debate.
Maybe you were not here at the time, but with your recent coming out party, you might do a little research. TM knows what he is talking about because I know when he has his facts straight. His spin is the issue. He is not long CCUR. He is in fact involved with this industry and he doesn't work for CCUR. I am not a lawyer, but I play one on TV. Check out the following evidence and get back to me. When your done, aplogize to Ken and lets all get him back here to post. He deserves to share in the celebration when we are all making money (at least those who actually own the stock). READ CAREFULLY THE FOLLOWING!!!!:
To: Don Hand (1131 )
From: tmrent Friday, Sep 5 1997 3:53PM ET
Reply # of 7221
"The Time Warner experiment used an SGI Challenge Machine with RAID at the Host and, believe it or not, used an INDY in the home as a Set-top-box (only a $15K unit at the time).
This was not meant to be a serious deployable configuration. There are only 2 companies today that make machines that can reliably serve over 1000 streams, and SGI is not one of them. ....head ends need 2000-4000 stream capacity to service 20,000 homes, so CCUR won't find business there. I see them in hotels mainly as a replacement of the tape based/non interactive systems ...
CCUR has not mentioned even a single VoD customer to my knowledge. BTW, there are software-only solutions that work up to 150 streams so CCUR has to exceed that to get anyone interested."
***Next one for your TM Rents non biased greatest posts collection:**
"I am in the business, and doing VoD is pretty tough because of the time dependancy of frame delivery, and the penalty paid if you have to duplicate content to get stream count up."
*** Remember that he has no agenda and no ties to competitors? Here is one from post #1143: ****
"VoD is what I am currently doing. ..... at the high end. I am a Chief Engineer and love this stuff."
*** Another bullseye: ***
" CCUR is a mid-range player 100-375 MPEG-1 streams"
*** Is the following quote from the same guy that questions the addition of our new former SFA VOD president or our new former Pioneer VP of VOD sales? You would think the SFA integration and marketing deal fits the bill?: ***
"CCUR does seem a bit lost on the marketing side for IVOD, stating they will supply servers or whole integrated systems. They need to decide what they will and won't do and build relationships with great VARS who will add GREAT value. If they try to integrate MPEG encoders, Mass Storage, various network types and various client player devices themselves, they will NEVER finish. They need to get aligned with folks who do this in a world-class way, and not try to be everything to everyone. Tough but critical moves to do right."
*** Here Tm gives more VOD education for the thread back in early 1998: ***
"If you dig back I mentioned that CCUR's VoD offerings were mid-range and meant for areas like hotels vs cable plants. And low and behold that is where they are finding interest. Cable head-ends need upwards to a 10,000 stream server to feed a 30,000 viewer network (remember, it is possible to have several streams into each home active). CCURs offering does not scale that high without replicating "content" which makes it tough to compete with larger machines that can serve all 10000 viewers with only one copy of any menu selection. Each of the viewers can interact with their stream and be unaware that others are also watching the same selection."
*** This TM post speaks for itself: ***
"As for CCURs offering, the last time I looked they were at 375 streams of MPEG1 max (half that for MPEG2). Still respectable for mid-range, but cable head ends ..... maybe for introductory service experiments but not full deploy, unless they have a different machine in the works, which is doubtful due to the huge expense."
*** Not working on his own VOD solution huh, check this out: ***
"My 6,000 stream machine is designed to make 30 disk accesses per second per disk, grabbing a .2 sec chunk of user MPEG2 video data for each access."
How about this post to Ken that gives his CCUR interests away and his desire to learn more about CCUR:
"What can you share about the technical method CCUR will use to get passed the 375 MPEG-1 stream limit they advertise?"
*** and this: ***
"Do you have any insight on how they plan to get to 2000+ MPEG 2 streams ? As I said before ... they kill at mid-range ... but their answer to the high end is a real mystery, and replication quickly becomes very inefficient and not cost-effective. Ten 187 stream servers at $100K/server (w/ storage) is 2x the price of other solutions"
*** Sound like a competitor yet? How about this one regarding Diva from Feb 16, 1998. Different interpretation back then I guess and it doesn't sound like the 2,000 stream server is so new now does it?:***
"DIVA/SARNOFF has a 2000+ stream MPEG2 machine ........
I have worked with this group. They have a high end machine derived from the Princeton Engine that can scale to over 6000 streams. SARNOFf also has designed a cheap ($200) set-top-box for this system (vs $1000 for SAs). DIVA has bundled the server, movies, menus and STB into a package. They do not "sell" the package, rather they work a deal to install it at cable head-ends, sell movies and collect the $3.95 (online), and then pay the cable operator $1 or so for access to his customers ... a win-win. This system is proprietary (no open systems anything) allowing the absolute lowest cost per stream solution out there. The machine is made exclusively for VoD, and it is impressive as a MPEG pusher.
DIVA secretly claims to have almost half of the small-med cable companies signed up for systems, with DIVA having to get financing to buy/install systems. Again, the cable owner pays nothing. Rather clever I say, but it takes deep pockets. Onsite has invested over $60M thus far to put this system together and has kept it quiet in order to end-run the big name players like SGI and HP. It seems to be working, and as you say ... the more VoD becomes commonplace, the more demand there will be for VoD .... and all suppliers will benefit.
This effort by DIVA is good for CCUR ultimately."
*** Here comes his first of many plugs for the Network Connection and puts CCUR in the same class as this company with its cruise ship server sales and its recent merger with a company that gave up VOD for dry cleaning, not to mention the Swiss Air thing: ***
"Another aspect to consider is the Sarnoff machine is made solely for cable head-end systems. There is no interface even planned to bridge to traditional data networks ....they will make billions selling to cable systems and are not looking to broaden out anytime soon .... they have a very healthy niche where they are focused on dominating. A good plan .... CCUR needs to carve out a solid low-end niche and not be so arrogant about putting VoD "everywhere" like they seem to be advertising. Another mid-range company is "The Network Connection (TNCI)" who has a decent machine and is doing much the same as CCUR .... look them up and get a feel for their focus areas ... primarily distance learning. They are small but very aggressive and competent too ... I'd put some money in them too as all good boats will rise with VoD ... TNCIs will be fastest as VoD is all they do."
*** He doesn't want CCUR to try hard? How arrogant of CCUR to think they can play with the big boys! Try not to laugh to hard on this next TM post Rocko: ***
"Want a quick and pure VoD play ? ... The Network Connection (TNCX) stock is surging on rumors of a Cruise-line VoD deal to be announced next week. TNCX has systems one notch up from CCURs in stream-count and has a much better advertising campaign that CCUR for VoD ... focusing on Cruise-lines, campus distance Learning, and aircraft VoD. You're welcome ... but remember ... it's just a rumor. Their stock is down from 12, recovering from recent 3.5, now surging through mid-6's."
*** Watch out, March 1998 and Tm gets a breakthough and will kill CCUR: ***
"No worry ... my 6000 Stream IVoD machine does not have an operating system ! It does use ATM OC-12 (622 Mbps) channels, PVC and SVC, and is the lowest stream cost in the industry."
*** Well which is it TM, budding VOD inventor or mega rich retired guy!: ***
"And yes ... I am retired at age 39, thank you. Living off royalties from my patents."
*** It is April now and here is TM's advice to CCUR: ***
"CCUR needs to focus on hotels (ONCO) and use the profit to build a 20,000 - 100,000 stream system that can compete with NCUBE and DIVA ... but these competing machines are tough to beat and will have a few years of production on them while CCUR catches up."
*** Here is how he sees the competitive landscape in April 1998: ***
"Here's my view:
DIVA/Sarnoff and NCUBE get cables
CCUR gets hotels
TNCX gets ships, planes, and colleges"
*** In closing, I will leave you with this now famous post from Tm Rent only weeks before the CCUR cable train started to pull out of the station with the SFA deal: ***
"BEWARE of PC-based mid-range IVoD Servers
I just saw a demo of a 250 stream system for a fraction of the cost of the MH.
Fully Interactive. Fast. Impressive. Scalable UP and DOWN.
CCUR may have gotten beaten at their own game.
Perhaps that's why they are silent ... SFA and others are shying away from hardware-aligned systems like the MH, and betting on PC-based ones which have standards, multiple suppliers, and deep and continuous technology insertion .
BTW, SEAC's server is software on a PC platform .... great price/performance.
Party over ? It just might be."
*** Any questions Rocko? Maybe you would like to go and read each one yourself, but these speak for themselves. I don't plan on answering the TM post until others have had their chance over the weekend to post there thoughts and questions and I will simply keep my biased opinion silent, after all, TM has no agenda that would be contrary to CCUR shareholders interests, right? ****
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