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Technology Stocks : America On-Line (AOL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steeny who wrote (21240)	6/10/1999 4:09:00 PM
From: FlameMe	Respond to of 41369

Thanks for the explanation! Regards, Ross

To: Steeny who wrote (21240)	6/10/1999 9:45:00 PM
From: Tom L. French	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 41369

Steeny Interesting comments about support levels... I usually look at candles which show several tests of 105, but if you look at a line chart two (bearish) things appear evident: first, there was strong support at ~120, which then became resistance and has been tested from below 3 times--twice with mini tests but the last time after falling to 105 before a much more pronounced retest, followed by a resumption of the current slide and another break through the 100 MA.... which is the second bearish thing that appears on this chart. The support at ~105-110 is around the 100 day MA (which seems an important area for several other stocks I've noticed, like YHOO for example), and it is now breaking below that 100 MA line for the second time. Recent news about competitive pressure in Europe, where the most future growth is supposed to come especially after 2002/3 (when growth here is supposed to taper off) is another bearish factor I don't like. I'm still holding on and still very long. But if it breaks below this ~105 level I may lighten up some with the idea of getting back in at lower prices before the resumption of strong upward surges in the fall. The problem with that idea, however, is that trying time AOL is very hard IMO...when it takes off again it will not wait for any hesistant bulls. I lurk and reads lots, but post rarely... and I'm still betting on AOL getting much bigger over the next 3-5 years. Regards, Tom

To: Steeny who wrote (21240)	6/11/1999 8:59:00 AM
From: Tunica Albuginea	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 41369

Steeny : figures out: PPI up 0.2%, Core rate uo 0.1%. All as expected.Retail Sales a little higher 1%, compared to 0.4%; (excluding autos, up 0.5% )All this means is why have a good growing economy without inflation. AOL trading up to 107. There is little evidence of inflation. All we have is a strong economy. That is good. Low unemployment: good. Falling Industrial capcity: good, it keeps rapid growth down. We have England lowering interest rates because THEY are afraid their economy will tank Same with Europe. So we don't have a red hot world economy that will fuel our inflation. We have a world economy STILL ON THE INCUBATOR. Buy AOL. TA PS I hope you can all open the following links. You may not however if you are not subscribers to the Wall St Jour. -------------------------- All this by the way could have been predicted even yesterday from reviewing BrefingCom data at Wall St Jour. interactive.wsj.com May PPI Big Picture Inflation? What inflation? The oil thing has just not turned out to be such a big deal. Oil prices have come off their highs, and besides, an increase in the price of one commodity should not be considered inflationary, as it is a relative price increase rather than an aggregate price increase (repeat until a trance-like state is achieved). So long as we see core prices remain well behaved, the inflation picture will remain optimistic. Given a declining capacity utilization rate and no evidence of production bottlenecks, that is indeed what we should expect. Highlights Market Consensus: 0.2% total; 0.1% core. Briefing.com Forecast: 0.2% total; 0.1% core. Key Factors It will be business as usual for the May PPI. Oil is no longer an issue, as the expected 0.2% increase in the total will largely be due to increases in food. Another tame 0.1% increase in the core is expected, and will be comprised of moderate increases in consumer goods that will be tempered by weakness in capital goods and passenger cars. Inflationary pressures in the pipeline should remain nonexistent, as both core intermediate and crude prices are expected to post modest monthly decreases and persevere on a long-running year/year decline. Oil in May, unlike March and April, is expected to be a negative for the total. The price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate fell by nearly 10%, and the price of Fuel Oil #2 dropped just over 11%, suggesting that oil will drag down total PPI. Conversely, the total is expected to be lifted by food prices, which are weighted more heavily in the index. Take note: some of the food commodities that we follow saw huge price increases in May, e.g.,eggs were up over 23%, butter was up nearly 60%, and we would caution that there is some upside risk for the food component. Prices for capital equipment, which have been weak since early 1996, are again expected to keep the core under wraps in May. Prices for passenger cars, which increased by 0.2% in April, should resume their downward trend that began in December 1998. =========================================================== Same thing for CPI coming out Tues : interactive.wsj.com Big Picture Oh my, the inflation hawks are coming out of the woodwork on this one! We're already hearing comments such as this is obviously a "clear sign" that inflation is rearing its ugly head again and yada, yada, yada. The April report, taken in isolation, was sort of ugly, but sitback, take a deep breath, and look beyond April for a moment. Firstly, oil prices were the main reason for the spike in the total. At the risk of repeating ourselves, this is a relative increase in prices, not a change in aggregate prices, and is therefore not inflationary. And the OPEC deal...well, let's not get into that. Secondly, the April increase in the core was just payback for months of sedate numbers. The last time we saw a 0.4% increase in the core was in April 1997, and since then, we have seen 0.1%s and 0.2%s with an occasional 0.3%. Inflationary? We don't think so. One month does not a trend make. Year-to-date, the core CPI is now up at a 1.9% annual rate. That compares to a 2.4% increase in 1998. After the Q1 numbers, the 1999 figure was just 0.9% -- we noted at the time that this understated the underlying trend in core inflation. That was obviously the case, and we saw the payback in the April numbers. The most important point to note is that the terrible April numbers simply brought this series back into line with the underlying trend and did not signal that core CPI was accelerating. Now that we are back on trend, it is a very good bet that we will see more one tenth and two tenth increases in core CPI in the months ahead. ========================================================= Economic Chartbook interactive.wsj.com