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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (16749)	6/10/1999 5:19:00 PM
From: Les H	Respond to of 99985

I believe the long-term momentum oscillator (Coppock) bottoms in July. It topped out in January. Nasdaq essentially has been sideways since as have some majors like CSCO, LU, MSFT, INTC, and others. If the Fed raises rates and the market behaves as in the prior rate hike in '97, the bond market would rally and stocks would decline for a short period thereafter of a couple weeks. Rubin leaves the Treasury in July 4 thereabouts. The next Fed meeting after the end of June meeting is in August 24.

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (16749)	6/10/1999 5:36:00 PM
From: Yogizuna	Respond to of 99985

Heinz, Yes, I also heard that on CNBC. (now David Tice and Mike Holland are "duking it out" on the bull & bear debate) The bonds certainly are becoming pretty extremely oversold here, but there is support coming up in the 113/114 area basis the nearby contract. My bond buy/sell signals have been pretty decent for the last three years, so I'm waiting with some interest to see what the upcoming buy signal will do as far as "staying power" goes. It could very well be that we slowly float around the support level until "Da Fed" makes up it's mind, and then we get the buy signal no matter what they do, unless they surprise and raise rates more than expected. I agree with you, that the best thing would be for the market to tank some more, get the "Yogi Index" down to deeply oversold levels, and then we could build up a base for the next rally phase. The "Yogi Index" is not really a standard TA system like most would think, but is rather a quick mental reading I do of the overall market conditions at the end of each trading day, and then assign a number to it. Even so, it has worked very well in my opinion, and I even keep a chart of it, overlayed with one of my technical indicators to give additional confirmation of a particular day's reading. I guess one could call it: "Yogi's Crystal Ball"! <VBG> Yogi