To: Scarecrow who wrote (9605 ) 6/10/1999 10:10:00 PM From: SJS Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 19700
Scarecrow... Found this tonight, and it's to my point about this "new phase". Just something to think about: _______________ Theglobe.com falls off the edge of the world By Peter D. Henig Redherring.com June 9, 1999 Talk about a stock that's taken it on the chin! Online community site Theglobe.com (Nasdaq: TGLO) had a monster IPO -- pricing at $9 a share, soaring as high as $97, and closing at $63.50 for a record-setting first-day gain of 606 percent. But what goes up in Internet mania often comes down twice as fast. After peaking at a split-adjusted $48.50, Theglobe.com's shares are trading in the $20s and below just six months later. Singled out as the prime example of just how wrong Internet IPO investors can be, Theglobe.com is now spending a lot of time convincing Wall Street it can stand on its own two feet and ultimately rejustify its Internet valuation. "They came out at one of the most optimal times -- when maximum liquidity was focused on the IPO market," says Dana Serman, Internet analyst with Lazard Frères. "Soon, though, some began believing Theglobe.com is only one of a dozen me-too community sites to choose from." Precipitating the company's post-IPO plummet was an ill-timed secondary offering. Theglobe.com's follow-on of 6 million shares (trimmed from the planned 8 million) came on May 19, 1999, just as Internet stocks were hitting an early summer slump. The secondary offering was predominantly purchased by institutions, but prior to the secondary, as little as 5 percent of Theglobe.com's shares were held by institutions -- a sign of little long-term faith in the company. In fact, as much as the company is pleading with its investor base to believe it's making all the right moves, it is Theglobe.com's retail investors -- many of whom chat about stocks on community sites not unlike Theglobe.com's very own -- who have taken the stock for such a ride. A giant first-day gain was not based on Theglobe.com's reality. Community has become a dirty word to some sites. Internet companies are quick to jump into secondary offerings. The question now is whether Theglobe.com has what it takes to make it as an independent Internet community/portal site. One large Internet fund manager confirmed he's buying the stock big time, based primarily on buyout prospects from the likes of News Corp. (NYSE: NWS). And as Stephan Paternot, co-CEO of Theglobe.com, likes to point out, his company beat Wall Street's estimates for first quarter losses by $0.08 -- landing only $0.47 in the red, compared with forecasts for a loss of $0.55. But with standing advertising-based revenues of just $5.5 million in 1998 and a current run rate of less than $13 million, Theglobe.com is certainly not generating new business at a pace worthy of a billion-dollar valuation. And this revenue ramp -- because it has been generated predominantly from advertising, not e-commerce -- is not likely to pull Theglobe.com into the black any time soon. As with any Internet stock, however, it's risky to bet against Theglobe.com. On any given day, a few press releases, the right partnerships, or, in the case of a well-trafficked prize like Theglobe.com, a buyout offer could take this stock right back through the roof.