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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (16757)	6/10/1999 7:16:00 PM
From: Yogizuna	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Heinz, Did you ever do an overlay of the BKX and OEX or SPX chart to see how well the bank stocks here correlate with the market? Yogi

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (16757)	6/10/1999 9:19:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Respond to of 99985

HB; The correction will show it's bottom on volume , as long as this volume stays light we will mess around and slowly lose ground, then one day the bulls will toss in the towel then we will find out what happens when CreemSpam shrugs his shoulders instead of coming to the rescue and says "I told you so". Jim

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (16757)	6/11/1999 7:03:00 AM
From: bearshark	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Goof afternoon Heinz: I looked at your XBD chart and drew the same conclusions. This chart looks weaker than many similar current patterns. In the chart, it looks like there already was a test of the apex (the little cup ending at the beginning of June) and a subsequent failure. I also project a possibility of the mid to high 200s. There are other significant symmetrical triangles in other indices. (These can be viewed at bigcharts.com Heinz, I will go into detail for others that do not understand charts. The site did not maintain a link to specific chart so it is necessary to redo the chart. For this analysis, I used the COMP volume as a substitute for others because the other indices do not report volume. So that is the caveat. The other is that these triangles broke out near their apexes which is believed to make them weak.) For example, the DOT has a large symmetrical triangle and it has broken out of the bottom. The DOT triangle has an apex at about 640. Currently, it appears to be in a test of the apex. It can go to 640 and again fail. Or it can go to 640 and breakout which would make me go long. The projection, if the apex holds and the DOT moves down is 390 - 350 but may be lower due to future projections. Looking at the IIX, we see a similar pattern. Its apex is being tested too. The apex is at about 325, and if it successfully holds any rally, the low can be projected to 225 to 200 or so. If you look at the OEX and SPX, you can see formations of no shape. However, they form resistance. There is a cup forming that appears to be ready to test their center. Everything I do suggests that there is no energy for a significant move up. In fact, the decline appears to be strengthening. If we get a "good" report this morning, I would expect a nice rally. However, it should be bogus. I also consider the June 28-29 FOMC meeting to be a done deal. Alice Rivlin's resignation after the last FOMC meeting, departure in July, and not sitting at the June FOMC meeting, is too much evidence that we are getting a rate increase. She is a rate dove that has been treated well by the current presidency.