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Strategies & Market Trends : LastShadow's Position Trading -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Redhook who wrote (15461)	6/10/1999 7:18:00 PM
From: LastShadow	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 43080

Tomorrow The futures are easing up a bit, but there is a definite collection of bad news floating around out there. japans gross domestic product was up a whole lot more than most thought it wuld - The caused the long bond to a bad start. Fed Reserve Gov. Ferguson further exacerbated the bond markets by saying there needed to be 'preemptive action' etc. All in all we are seeing a fairly kind treatment by the stock market by the Feds. In the past they just said what they said and let the markets do what they may. Now we see them warning about 'an increased bias' (in other words they might consider it...). A year ago thatwould have been unthinkable. Also a year ago there weren't but a few people on SI who even knew what the bond rate change effect would be - now it seems everyone is looking at it - of course now it seems to have a more obvious effect. Up or down, it doesn't really matter. the market has to see the DOW to about 10,400 and the SPX to 1225-1250 or so for about two weeks to get the corrections in place for the valuations to equal a 25 basis point drop that would appease the feds and not institute a rate hike. The problem is, with the capitalization weighted indices driven by the few dozen large stocks, it probably won't matter what the market does as the FOMC will most likely institute the rate hike and this is a pretty easy way of getting folks out of the market with the minimum pain. Any one holding over the weekend? Probably not, and most likely the market will be the same and offload some more in case anyone else decidesds to throw in their few cents worth (ther are several more Fed Reserve Governors who haven't spoken yet...) My guess, since you asked, as worthless as it probably is, is that the market will open down on the CMGI news, try for a mid morning rise, fail by noon, go flat for a few hours, try for the late afternon rally, and then fail miserably at that and close down. Today was pretty light trading, and it could be the same tomorrow, as most people that I talked to are hoping we just bounce around a bit. Except the shorters - they want some direction as well, and the market just isn't giving it. No large buyers or sellers. Just us traders mucking around. Thats no fun.