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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: StockOperator who wrote (16781)	6/10/1999 11:33:00 PM
From: HairBall	Respond to of 99985

SO: Just my take...on a conservative approach. If you are sitting on healthy "long" profits you might want to hold until the Market reveals the direction for sure. Just keep a stop loss in mind or with your broker if you can not watch the Market. If you are real concerned about a move down...go to cash and wait. If you are in cash...stay there and wait. The Indices are giving us divergent signal, however many of the major Indices are displaying clear boundaries (formations with clear upper and lower trend lines). It may be the most prudent thing to wait to see which way it breaks. Then jump on the train as it leaves the station. Sure you may leave some money on the table with this strategy, but that is the price one pays for protecting the nest egg….<g> Note: The above is a general overall view, that would apply best to a SPX Index Fund. Your individual stock holdings may require a different strategy. Of course if you're a speculating daytrader or swing trader enjoy the roller coaster...<g> Regards, LG Disclaimer: My posts are my opinions only and I reserve the right to be wrong on occasion. Do not base any investment decision solely on anyone's views or analysis. Do your own research and take responsibility for your own investment decisions.

To: StockOperator who wrote (16781)	6/14/1999 3:21:00 PM
From: E. Graphs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

SO, I have been watching Nasdaq with some curiosity. The chart seems to be pushing to fill a hardly noticeable gap at 2400. I don't feel that it is necessary for this gap to fill.....was using it only as a marker for a pullback. There is pretty good support at 2400, imho. If Naz holds this support we may be setting up/forming an ascending triangle which will help combat resistance at 2500. Eventually, if we are able to take out 2500 we will have built some excellent support there. What do you think? quote.yahoo.com^IXIC&d=3mm Thanks for your comments. E. Graphs

To: StockOperator who wrote (16781)	6/20/1999 11:07:00 PM
From: StockOperator	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

"Crunch Time for the Bulls" Hello thread. I believe this coming week is going to be very important and quite informative as to the immediate direction of the market. With interest rates coming off their recent highs and the distinct possibility of a preemptive move by the FED, the markets are indeed poised for a strong move in either direction. The question I think we need to ask ourselves is how is the market going to react to a quarter point move by the Fed, which btw I think you have to believe will the worst case scenario. With the recent benign CPI report there will be some pressure on the FED to do nothing. But lets give the raise the benefit of the doubt and say rates are bumped. I think at this point it would be very easy to make a case for both a strong rally or decline based on that move (depending on who's making the case). Keeping that in mind my gut tells me to favor the side that will be least expected by the general investing public at large. When you consider that we now have a broad audience who prefers CNBC over ESPN, I think the media has done a fine job in conditioning them to expect a decline if rates are indeed raised. In my last post (about a week ago) I made the point that this correction has taken a whole host of stocks and indexes down to test their long term trend lines. In the case of the DOW it has spent the last three weeks bouncing off a major trendline established from it's October bottom. In that post I tried to make the case that prices across the board would start to rise while they attacked the upside resistance on their charts, heading into the FOMC meeting. That process has become more evident with the recent rally. This rally has been most noticeable in the high tech sector with the NAZ leaving a sizeable gap on the chart. A gap that I feel could remain unfilled if we are able to add to those gains this week. Looking at the charts across the board, this week offered us many weekly reversals. Besides, prices on the NAZ, S&P and RUT closed either at over very close to the highs of the week, implying further upside to go next week. Which in the context of Don's class 1 sell will be interesting to watch as the week plays out. I am also expecting more of a breakout in the Transports as they should begin to make a more noticeable move through some weekly resistance on the chart. Let me summarize quickly where I think we are: The markets overall are poised to break to a higher level. The DOW is beginning to turn up at a major point on it's chart - the NAZ appears ready to break a recent five month consolidation - the RUT appears ready to take out a rising wedge formation - the S&P is also poised to break a three month consolidation. These patterns also coincide with many stocks across the board working their way through some significant consolidation. In other words a breakout from these levels could indeed be powerful and broad based. So I will be watching how prices head into the end of the month. At this point prices need to continue to add to their current levels. If we do manage to get another solid week of gains across the board especially in the high tech sector I think we are about to see a huge rally as prices are taken to a new level. An explosive rally that is going to suck huge amounts of capital into the markets. If I am right the place to make money will be once again be in the high tech area. Remember the NAZ composite has gone sideways for five months, a breakout of this pattern could be huge. That is why I believe that gap may not be filled just yet. Even INTC closed higher on the week despite the bad news on Friday, evidence of a possible shift in sentiment. Also, if I am correct I believe the there is huge upside in the recent internet ipo market. There is a whole host of companies that have gone public in the past couple of weeks that have gotten killed during the recent correction. Many will have to rise at least 150% just to get to their ipo price. So this week will be interesting to see. By Friday I will either be a raging bull or back to a very defensive posture. Right now it's all up to the market. Watching and waiting. Profitable trading. SO