To: lml who wrote (530 ) 6/11/1999 2:02:00 PM From: pat mudge Respond to of 2347
Today its a different story. Satellite broadcasting is much more competitive, both in price & programming (which now can include local broadcasts) More importantly, what we're talking about here is Internet access. So some subscribers will also have available alternative broadband access via DSL technology & fixed wireless. The bottom line is that these "reluctant" cable companies will need to invest in fiber if they are to compete in the marketplace. This is becoming more true every day. With NN's ability, in conjunction with IMagic, to offer a viable way for telcos to offer high-speed Internet connections and digital TV, cable companies have more reason than ever to upgrade so they can do the same. Cable operators with old plant will be the first to lose their customers to telco/copper solutions. Consumers are discerning and if offered megabit Internet and full broadcast DTV, they'll make their decision based on cost and speed. If costs are comparable and their cable company doesn't offer high-speed Internet, it's not hard to guess what they'll do. Cable operators and carriers (whether RBOCs, ISPs, or long distance) will have to offer one-box-does-all service. And it goes without saying that'll have to include voice. As consumers, no one cares what technology lies behind the services --- fiber, copper, wireless --- just give us everything we want -- including reliability --- for one price on one bill. I know I'm preaching to the choir, here. :)) Incidentally, TERN's noise solution results in lower speeds and the lower your speeds, the fewer customers you can service. As for their claims on DOCSIS 1.2, the physical layer standards haven't been established and while they've submitted their technical paper, the outcome isn't certain. Now, if their technology is accepted and they go head-to-head with Broadcom as a chip vendor, will the competition, including CMTO, buy from a competitor? Some say they'll have to drop their modem business if they expect to challenge Broadcom. Investing in TERN involves some pretty big "ifs." Based on all I've said and their SEC filings, I'm not touching them. Pat