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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Phoenix who wrote (8119)	6/11/1999 11:16:00 AM
From: Mr.Fun	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 21876

Gary, In a previous post you specifically called your $10 billion a SWAG (I am sure you know that that acronym means). If indeed you had intended that to mean a hard number from an insider at Juniper who is in a position to know what price they would or would not sell, it might have been helpful to everyone for you to have said so. Nonetheless, Juniper's I-bankers, who typically can be counted on for maximum stock hype, are suggesting a $4 billion valuation post offering. Certainly, any takeover would involve a fairly substantial premium above that level. $10 billion, or 40 times sales, is likely wishful thinking - the crazy valuations of internet stocks are due to the potential for co-opting revenue from the huge retail and advertising markets. Even QCOM enthusiasts can point to the royalties for hundreds of millions of CDMA devices. Juniper's revenue potential is easier for institutional investors to understand, and therefore value. Second, it is available at the right price. That price is probably somewhere between $5 and $10 billion. Eventually, Juniper will likely sell out to someone - track record for carrier equipment companies staying independent AND successful is poor. We are going to be in Juniper in a big way. I do not read management as unwilling to consider take out. A large proportion of Juniper's employees left other companies for the opportunity to make more money, not simply to work at a smaller company - thus the shorter lock-in granted by Goldman. BTW both LU and ASND have been working for years on fast routers. ASND learned some hard lessons from the GRF and are at least as credible as Argon, Nexabit, Pluris, Avici and company - who have yet to ship router one for revenue. The LU PacketStar box still needs work, but LU has a lot of resources and there is still time, as no one sees the current generation of products from any vendor, including Cisco's GSR, as really fitting the bill for the bigger, faster, more reliable IP networks to come.