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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Berney who wrote (16934)	6/11/1999 8:26:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Berney; Your right , the moves don't match the hype. If I block out ALL the news , and just look at what the market is doing..sector by sector and follow the money trail I see a picture that don't make sense. ---------------------------- I am very up to date on all the XL?s in the S&P, from their blend to their market cap, and I tell you what I see is ugly. ------------ They are easing it down a notch at a time, ( in a healthy market the Nifty Fifty may have one or two that are below the S&P, But there are 28 of the Nifty Fifty Below the S&P You can dam sure bet if they don't get up the rest will fall. The ones that are above the average, are all the wrong stocks to be above the average in a sick market.. Talk about divergence Look At consumer Staples quote.yahoo.com Now keep in mind they are some of the better part of the S&P500 it the XLP that carries more market cap than ANY of the others. When the hi market cap stocks are diving and the Thinner ones hold up the index , the physical make up of the index becomes less liquid..and it can drop like a rock , I'm not saying it will drop like a rock BUT the way it works is when the most liquid of stocks are below it, and the smaller floats are on top , to get UP takes a lot of money back into the Nifty Fifty, to Fall like a stone don't take pulling out much money from the others. It has to do with float.. So all news aside, & all interest rate yada yada be dammed The index is in sad shape and it won't take much more money coming out of the market to send it down like an express elevator, the slow burn will one day become a very fast burn. --------------- To add insult to injury all the indexes are Enhanced and we all know that. Every year, in fact more often than that for most of them they shed the losing stocks , so it's not really representative of the Market but just the better stocks in the market, indexes are all dressed up much like a high class whore to hide the flaws, after all what they want the public to do is buy buy buy..by all means buy buy buy.. -------------- If one is on margin when it tanks the Broker dealer will sell them out..( telling em it's the law )..they can not let anyone exceed 70% under any conditions..and margin can go from 50% to 70% in just a few hours in a fast falling market. Guess who buys the stock on a forced sale. ------------ I don't care how bullish a person is if they go to bed long on margin with the market the way it is they are nuts. Jim PS after looking things over I'v change my ratings on the amount of correction prior to making a new high..from 10% off the High to 14% off of it. I see the S&P with a very good chance of hitting 1182 ( at least once interday )before this is over. It may take a while..but what good is that to them who came in on the high. Now for me I'm sure we will go down more before we every make any NEW high so there is no sense in me being long except on an interday trade. I'm not so sure about where the bottom is , but I am sure we haven't found it yet. Jim PS Interest rates are going to 20%..I don't know when but they will in time.