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Technology Stocks : America On-Line (AOL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GalSal who wrote (21495)	6/11/1999 4:38:00 PM
From: DanielleC	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 41369

What REALLY concerns me is the breaking of the $100 level! Would have bet the house that we would have held above it! This ain't funny anymore!

To: GalSal who wrote (21495)	6/11/1999 5:17:00 PM
From: Frank Ellis Morris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 41369

>> Tom, an analyst on CNBC just said stocks need to lose at least another 5 to 10% before we can expect a turn around. I'm thinking I might be further ahead to sell ALL my stock and buy it (or other) back at that 10% lower price. Seems like every few days, no matter how much we go down in a day or week, they keep calling for the market to go lower. How low can it go? It has for the most part been my philosophy to buy and hold stocks and not time the market. However, I feel we have a serious fundamental breakdown here not only with rising long interest rates but with competition mounting for internet service by major contenders. The market is extremely fearful of the one thing that is poison to stock growth and we have not seen interest rates this high since 1997. It was the Fed's three cuts in the lending rate that sparked this internet rally. The rise in the long bond and fear of a rate hike seems to be detrimental to the life of AOL and others. The stock of AOL sports a pe of 211 which is totally unacceptable in this kind of market and every time an analysts states that we need another 10% correction he or she is usually way off the mark. The fall today of AOL below 100 was a critical support break and there is nothing in the near future that I see that will stop the great fall. CMGI is like the mother of internet stocks and its stunning disappointing earnings shortfall yesterday spelled serious trouble today. AOL could be in the 70's or lower in another few weeks. (IMHO) AOL is a very high risk stock to own at this time. Holding on to it may be tantamount to holding on to an empty bag. Yes AOL is not going to go away and we are in the new world of e-commerce but with all the competition sprouting each day AOL is under ominous threat. Assaults will be coming from Dell, Microsoft and IBM in the future. Expect much dumping in the days ahead. Adding more bad news is the following statement from Merrill Lynch yesterday. "America Online was under pressure from negative comments made Thursday by Henry Blodget, Internet analyst at Merrill Lynch. Blodget noted that "international subscriber growth is significantly weaker than expected, perhaps partially as a result of the "free access" movement in the U.K." He didn't change his revenue or earnings per share estimates, adding that "we do not see any major catalysts for AOL's stock until the fall." Best Wishes Frank