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To: E. Davies who wrote (11046)	6/11/1999 11:11:00 PM
From: ahhaha	Respond to of 29970

That's quite correct and that's why I stated it. The point is that over the short run the price action is random, but over longer time frames the change in market state leads price. The market state is randomly distributed too, but it leads price. Both are randomly distributed up to trend and trends are randomly distributed up to inflection. Inflection is random. I can't tell you if a stock will work out nor can I tell you when to get aboard, but I can tell you when market state is changing. The rest is luck. The reason this occurs is that a stock gets to values where more and more people recognize that it is attractive/unattractive. They change the default state by implementing what they believe. Price often disguises this change. There's no conspiracy here. It's just human sentiment modifying belief in rational expectations.