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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (16964)	6/11/1999 8:51:00 PM
From: Les H	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

from stratfor --- Unless a very secret agreement has been reached between NATO and Russia – under which NATO has not only agreed to let Russia to enter Kosovo first but also to advance all the way to Pristina – an extremely serious confrontation may be brewing between NATO and Russia. The Russian news agency ITAR-TASS has confirmed reports from Yugoslav sources that Russian troops, unannounced, have entered Kosovo, moving overland toward Pristina, and – if the Yugoslav sources are to be believed – possibly landing in transports at Slatina airbase as well. The Russians, who have been treated as junior and unimportant partners by NATO during these negotiations, appear to have taken matters into their own hands by introducing troops and effectively creating their own zone of occupation. If reports currently circulating are correct, and the TASS reports suggest that they may be, the zone Russia has in mind includes a substantial chunk of Kosovo. If the Russians ignored their earlier vow not to move before reaching an agreement with NATO, it is not clear who made that decision. Yugoslav sources claim the order to move troops from Bosnia came from Yeltsin, but that decision, and the decision to enter Kosovo, may well have been handed to Yeltsin as a fait accompli by his own military, cooperating with the Serbian military. Absolutely nothing is clear at this moment. However, if these reports turn out to be true, and the Russians expect to hold their ground, we are now in a major confrontation between NATO and Russia. If, and we emphasize if, these reports are correct, NATO's strategy for occupying and administering Kosovo independently of the Russians may have just collapsed. British and French troops are scheduled to enter Kosovo and move toward Pristina inside the hour. We will have to wait and see what kind of greeting they receive in Pristina, and from whom.