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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (2599)	6/13/1999 4:28:00 PM
From: mauser96	Respond to of 54805

We already have an interest rate increase, courtesy of free markets, and a fed action would have little more than a psychological effect of confirming something that's already happened. I put the odds at 65% that the fed will increase short term rates within the next 2 meetings. As we both know, psychology and perception tend to rule markets in the short term, so there may be some market reaction, but I suspect most of it has been anticipated. The main thing is that we don't have anything close to an inverted yield curve, which I have found to be the real bull market killer. If we get an inverted yield curve I will sell most of my holdings. Real interest rates are already quite high, and at this time I can see no reason for any prolonged fed tightening. Mr. Greenspan has been so successful because he is the first chairman that I can remember that is smart enough to know that nobody is consistently smarter than the market. You can only outwit markets if you are careful to pick your time and place, and even then you will be lucky to be right more than 60% of the time. Greenspan listens to the markets, so we can get an idea of what he will do by carefully listening ourselves.