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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kemble s. matter who wrote (132492)	6/12/1999 12:54:00 AM
From: Sig	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Kemble: Re No AOL As one who deals in a lot of options (proportionally) I have to have some concept as to what is going on in the market. Does not have to make sense to others, but it gives me a chance to learn in retrospect any errors made. So the picture I have is that the great runup in the Internuts and Dell in January represented a vast hoard of dollars waiting to be tapped by powerful investors/market forces if they could bring the sector down. With the Dow so high, it was easy to frighten investors over the 'bubble' and the high P/E's. Plus CPQ's problems and the advent of the cheapy computers could be used strongly in arguments against Dell. There are always many ways to tap the money even if an institution wants to hold the stock long term. One way is to sell covered calls (or buy puts) and then 'take her on down'(the stock) at options expiration. Can even repeat the process each month. That's the one most obvious thing which has (probably) been happening consistently with many of these stocks since February, with a recovery between the options dates. Without some similar thinking, I would have been destroyed by those Feb, mar, apr, may calls (which I mostly avoided) instead of just taking the standard(haha) 40% hit. If there is any truth to what I say, then a company's actual performance or future prospects , even as good as Dell, are being disregarded in the overall operation. (I don't include Hwp or Ibm). Summary. 1. I am going to wait for the tide to change, until whatever operation or manipulation appears finished before getting back into the internuts. 2. And it looks like one more time on the Dell June options- flatter than &^%% right thru next Friday at around todays price. Recovery should start the monday after that which rather agrees with WBM's 'late June' comment. 3. Will count on Michael to put up a strong fight and pull some rabbits out of the hat as we approach the shareholders meeting Regards Sig (am just talking here and can be wrong (or wronger) HEHE, as any poster who tries to time the market)

To: kemble s. matter who wrote (132492)	6/12/1999 1:40:00 AM
From: Sig	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

Kemble: A few dreams about Dell and Y2K -pure speculation. August 1999: 60% of the small businesses using a 120 day cycle find they have difficulty placing or fulfilling orders for Jan 2000. Service reps contracted thru Dell are called in to fix the problem. Service calls go up 25% for the month.Dell makes arrangements to add one additional service provider. Small business Computer sales increase 10% mo/mo Sales of Zip drives from Dell increase 25% /mo/mo as companies find it nescessary to store HD info while making computer/ software changes. Sept-Oct 1999: Small businesses on a 90 day cycle find the same problems as above but there are more of them making decisions as to whether to change software or buy new computers. Some decide to do both. Computer sales by Dell to small businesses increase 20% mo/mo with another increase in sales of storage devices. 500 more employees are added to the 1000 already working at the leased Tennessee facility. Completion of the first building at the new plant is expedited and new recruitment and training classes begin so two shifts can be implemented when needed. Service calls (to test/fix Y2K problems) arranged thru Dell in all business segments rise by 50% over the July period. So there may be only one or two grains of truth here, but IMO Dell will be so busy building and delivering products they will still be facing the situation as for many past years that is- to keep up with basic demand. Gigabuys and ISP's can be the frosting to top it all off. Can people still ask why Mikie smiles a lot?? Go Dell Sig