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Technology Stocks : AUTOHOME, Inc -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ahhaha who wrote (11093)	6/12/1999 3:04:00 AM
From: E. Davies	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 29970

It is true that stocks don't require a panic bottom This comment motivated me to look back through all the trading history of ATHM and take a look at every bottom. There have been three "major" corrections in ATHM since the IPO in Jul '97. The first was a fall from a peak of 30 to a bottom of 18 1/4 from the period 10/6/97-11/25/97. 32 trading days long and a bottom 60% of the peak. The bottom was a classic panic selloff of 15% loss in a single day followed roughly 2 weeks later by a retest of the low. The second major selloff was from a peak of 55 to a bottom of 28 1/2 during the period 7/1/98-8/31/98. I measure 44 trading days and a bottom (end of day) 52% of the peak. This bottom was even more a classic panic selloff. A single day selloff of 25% marked the end. The stock then hit 23 1/2 intraday on 9/1/98 and ended the day at 33 1/2, a massive reversal. Our current selloff is in its 43rd day. It has fallen from a peak of 198 to our current 86, 43% of the peak. Our loss friday was a mere 7.4%, not quite panic proportions. As was pointed out, there is a chance that friday was a retest of the low the previous friday where the selloff was 10%. I don't believe it. I see a nasty fall to 75 (38% of peak) before this whole thing is over. I'm left "hoping" I'm wrong. Hope is a bad thing to base your choices on. This has already been the most severe selloff ATHM has ever seen in its lifetime. It is worse than what happened in the major market "crash" last fall. I guess this time because there was no solid reason for all the fear and we had survived it before people were more confident, which extended the fall. You are correct that not all selloffs end in a panic bottom. Another typical pattern is to enter into a long slow basebuilding process. 3 months is common. In my memory that seems to happen when there has been a fundamental change at the company, such as an earnings warning or a problem with the industry and the drop in price is a major gap down or a rapid 1-3 day selloff. So it ends in Fire or in Ice. You've seen much more than I, how else can it end? Eric

To: ahhaha who wrote (11093)	6/12/1999 3:56:00 AM
From: Lynn Heffelfinger	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 29970

Ahhaha; I have read your posts over the past several days and have been impressed with your insightful comments on ATHM and the Portland ruling. Having read your comments and ATHM's annual report i have a few questions/comments and would sincerely appreciate your reply. Is it appropriate to conceptualize ATHM, in general terms, as two loosely separate entities, as both an bb ISP and as an owner of a high-speed private national backbone. In other words, thinking of them as an ISP from the consumer to the headend over HFC cable, and as owner of the backbone from headend thru regional networks, data centers, and an ATM network operating at 45 megabits per second linked to internet content web sites. So, if ATHM loses their supposedly 'exclusive' rights over the last mile to the consumer (and there are multiple loopholes and exceptions to this exclusiveness outlined in the annual report), then formerly narrowband ISP's will be able to lease a ride through ATHM's private backbone to the last mile where they will then perform their broadband ISP services. They would then pay a toll to ATHM for using their private backbone pipes. Presumably AOL is the only narrowband ISP with pockets deep enough to build their own private national backbone. ATHM has leased AT&T's private backbone to support ATHM's future subscriber growth. ATHM is paying AT&T 45 million in '99 and '00 to lease 2 OC-48 channels operating up to a capacity of 2.5 gigabits per seconds of data transport along AT&T's national 15,000 mile optical network. AOL, pending appeal, has won the right to provide access over the last mile. And it seems readily apparent, but just to be absolutely clear, AOL has NOT also won the right to lease privately-owned OC-48 channels from AT&T or to use ATHM's private network, correct?? AOL would have to build a private broadband network from scratch from headend to ATM backbone to avoid paying a toll. And AOL's payment for the right to ride the pipes will go to ATHM and not to AT&T, because although AT&T actually owns the OC-48 backbone, ATHM owns the broadband service itself (and also still owns and operates the 19 regional data centers consisting of servers from Sun, and the regional network of network routers and switches that link down to the headend.) Do you think ATHM will keep this 'toll' or split it with AT&T? My feeling is the entire fee goes to ATHM because they provide the broadband service and simply lease a powerful T backbone. And ATHM will still have 1-2 years worth of court appeals to establish their broadband footprint and brand-name across the US as the exclusive TCI bb ISP. This will also give Excite some needed time to strengthen their content. And ATHM still has exclusive contracts around the world unaffected by this ruling.

To: ahhaha who wrote (11093)	6/12/1999 12:35:00 PM
From: red_dog	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 29970

The truth lies in one of your prior post,when you used the words, "accumulate at these levels". Equal amounts at the 3 levels that you mentioned would have averaged 92 5/8. If you have "faith" that the stock is good and will go up, maybe you accumulate 1 more lot at a lower price. I think that we all have that faith otherwise we wouldn't be on this thread, we would probably be over on one of the GOLD threads.

To: ahhaha who wrote (11093)	6/12/1999 3:36:00 PM
From: E. Graphs	Respond to of 29970

That's one good reason why I read charts. To make my best guess where to enter and exit a trade. However, I also see the company's fundamentals reflected in the charts. As long as I rely on my own DD and what I think is the best thing to do, I might learn from my mistakes and that's the best of the worst I can do. If I follow some general rule, such as buying or waiting for a panic blow-out bottom to buy, then I will be left behind in some cases or wishing I had sat on my hands in others. The rule doesn't tell me anything.......there are also good reasons to panic! For example, a panic buyer may have jumped in here at 33..... exchange2000.com

To: ahhaha who wrote (11093)	6/12/1999 4:02:00 PM
From: Elmer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 29970

Hi Ahhaha, I know this has been discussed but could you tell me the reach that the Oregon Court decision has on ATHM's business. Does it mean that if I can get ATHM's internet service that I will also be able to get AOL off the same cable on a high speed connection and bypass ATHM? Or is it simply that ATHM has to cut a deal with AOL to allow access of their service and they can't block AOL out? Also is the decision binding only in Oregon or is it a federal court decision? I originally thought that $85 was the bottom for ATHM and that a bounce would occur, but now I'm worried about interest rates. If they keep going up, the market is toast.