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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: PaperChase who wrote (62189)	6/12/1999 8:17:00 AM
From: Mark Oliver	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

In defense of Mr. Fleckenstein, which I doubt he needs, you and everyone else who looks at the DOW as an absolute view of the market are wrong. You only have to look through my portfolio to find many stocks that have not gone up. I believe Bill mostly argues the problems of technology companies that have lost their pricing power, or technological edge, and predicts they will eventually have to fall. It's the investors mania that continues to drive the stocks higher because they have in fact decoupled from their underlying reality. But in the end, it seems to me that playing Bear is much to much work for such a little return. If you are very good, you can make 100% return, but then you'll always have costs associated with short positions that you won't have with owning stocks, not to mention risk of being wrong. Now, compare this with people who invested in any really great company over the last 5 years. Some could be looking at returns of several 1000 percent. So, I guess my question is what is the point in putting all this energy into such low paying investments? Isn't the mindset of chasing the negative deal detracting from your really great returns found on positive investments in really great companies? Regards, Mark

To: PaperChase who wrote (62189)	6/12/1999 10:00:00 AM
From: Freedom Fighter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

Paper, >>The DOW climbed over 2500 points since your negative market comments from about a year ago<< I understand why many people equate the short term direction of the market with whether a person is correct or not, but I don't think that's an appropriate view for an "investor". The vast majority of seasoned investors realize that it's somewhere between difficult and impossible to figure out where the market will head. What they trust is that market prices will eventually reflect the values and business prospects of the underlying securities. That is pretty much what our system is based on. The efficient allocation of capital. Discrepencies that arise between the two can take quite some time to adjust. Especially in an environment that is very momentum and liquidity based and has a great number of beginners like this one. If stocks remain at this valuation plateau for another decade, then the bears missed something. But if 10 years from now we are trading at somewhere between 12-18 times earnings then stocks will be a bad place to have your money over that time. And if the market cracks in a major way and stays down then we know that stocks at these prices are crazy. We are betting on the end result not the path that will get us there. Wayne

To: PaperChase who wrote (62189)	6/12/1999 10:31:00 AM
From: Bill F.	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 132070

paper chase-yes it has not been much fun. however,the risks have only escalated since i have been bearish and prices have risen.so why would that make me bullish?that shouold make me MORE bearish and it has.markets often overshoot this one has in spades.it will again on the downside too.i heard the same things in tokyo as the mkt went from 29000 to 39000 while i was short,before collapsing to 12000 and ruining the economy for a decade and counting.i have been wrong as to the duration and ultimate size of the mania but not its existence.this bubble is in the process if popping now and will cause a decade of pain when it unwinds.

To: PaperChase who wrote (62189)	6/12/1999 9:18:00 PM
From: LTK007	Respond to of 132070

Bill I am feeling after the worst of this is over there will be a July rally into August and then the "Katie bar the door" in the over-valued stocks will then go into the final phase of bubble burst. For a relative new investor/trader as I,who is just now starting to play the downside of stocks,would it not be wiser for me to await a summer rally before taking put positions for the fall(FALL) months,than to take those positions now? Or do you hold "it's over baby,ain't no interim rally this summer",grab those puts now? Maxfield G