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Strategies & Market Trends : 50% Gains Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Dale Baker who wrote (7409)6/12/1999 6:12:00 AM
From: Dale BakerRead Replies (3) | Respond to of 118717
 
Finally a new PORTFOLIO UPDATE:

PORTFOLIO UPDATE JUNE 12:

For new lurkers, I update my portfolio from time to time so you can see how I have distributed my holdings among sectors, and track the winners and losers. This is a real portfolio – no smoke, mirrors, newsletters or other hype jobs. All of my trades are recorded for the thread.

The market continues to drift and the 50% portfolio is following, dragged down a little by Internet and tech stocks.

Lesson learned so far this year: I would be up a lot more if I had sold my Internet stocks in mid-May and not bought any new ones. But that would go against my philosophy of long-term Core Holdings and maintaining a healthy Internet exposure. I should have shorted some or bought puts instead.

In dollar terms, the portfolio is less than 10% off its high for 1999 – which is more than I can say for a lot of individual stocks.

New additions (since 5/23): CMCSK, STRM, PRVT, AIB, HSAC, WEIR, USAB, SONE, more FNDTF, IFSX and VUSA, BWT short, CUST November 17.5 puts, PTEK August 15 calls, CS July 10 calls.

Out: TVGIA, LPGL, JOF, TTF, SCOT, BNGO, DIAL, IACO, DIA short, RACE short, PAIR July 15 calls.

Now holding 56% techs and 48% non-tech stocks (with 4% margin balance). Buying tech stocks that look cheap tilted the balance.

Portfolio currently ahead 52.5% YTD, down from +60% on May 23. Dow is up 14%, NASDAQ 11% and S&P about 5%. The Internet Index is only up 40% YTD now.

According to the Bloomberg Mutual Fund Center, the 50% Gains portfolio would rank 12th among all US mutual funds for YTD performance (though six of the others are Asia or Russia-based funds). The one-year performance (100%) ranks 9th. bloomberg.com

Core holdings: AOL, BRKB, CMGI, EGRP, FNDTF, FRNT (new), MFNX, MSFT, MSGI, RNWK, SILK, URBN (new), VRIO, WCOM: 46%.

50% Gains Candidates: AIB (new), AMG, BINC, BTGC, CMCSK (new), CYPLF, HSAC (new), IATV, IFSX, IMCL, LWIN, LPAC, MMPT, PRVT (new), RIG, SBTV, SONE (new), STRM (new), TGLO, USAB (new), VUSA: 50%.

Tradin' Trash: NORE, WEIR (new): 2%.

Options: CS July 10 calls, PIXR July 50 calls, PTEK August 15 calls, HMK Sept 16.6 calls, BTIM September 12.5 puts, CUST November 17.5 puts, WMB January 2001 40 LEAP calls, T January 2001 56.6 LEAP calls: 6%.

Cash: -4%.

Current shorts: ENMD, VLNC, BWT and ICCSA. Equals 10% of portfolio value long, down from 20% on May 23. The short portfolio finally turned a profit as ICCSA collapsed under the weight of discount convertible holders starting to dump their shares. ENMD offsets my IMCL long position, and it fell nicely this week.

SECTORS: Communications back to even with the Internuts and Financials. Options holdings are included.

Broadcasting/Communications: WCOM, IATV, MFNX, LWIN, PIXR calls, LPAC, T calls, SBTV, HSAC, CMCSK (25%)
Internet Services: AOL, CMGI, RNWK, VRIO, MMPT, MSGI, VUSA, TGLO, PRVT, STRM (25%)
Financial/Insurance: AIB, AMG, BRKB, EGRP, IFSX, USAB, SONE (24%)
Software: FNDTF, SILK, MSFT (9%)
Biotech: BINC, IMCL, BTIM puts, BTGC (8.5%)
Energy: WMB calls, RIG (5%)
Retailers: URBN, WEIR, HMK (3.3%)
Gaming: NRAG, CYPLF (2.5%)
Travel: FRNT (1.3%)
Hardware: CS calls (.4%)

Currently 20 winners, 3 break even and 14 losers, or 23, 4 and 14 if you count shorts (options are too volatile to include week to week).

Comments, questions and suggestions more than welcome as always.



To: Dale Baker who wrote (7409)6/12/1999 9:01:00 AM
From: JSBRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 118717
 
I currently hold only 8 positions
and no inets.

I will look for an entry in another
week or so, hopefully finding a
bottom, or close to a bottom.

It just seems that the value plays
have been holding well, while inets
continue to sell off, albeit on weak
volume.

Regardless of the CPI numbers on Wednesday,
I think the market will rally higher when
it is of the mind to do so. Cash is
looking pretty good right now. JMO, of course.