Date: 06/12 00:25 EST
Die size is still a problem but 'we just have to learn to deal with it' -- Panel deems Rambus ready for PC prime time
Jun. 11, 1999 (Electronic Engineering Times - CMP via COMTEX) -- San
Francisco - Despite some jitters along the way, suppliers at a
technology conference here reported that the infrastructure is in place
for Rambus DRAMs to move into the PC market.
Die size remains a concern, suppliers conceded, but all of them
maintained that neither the 10-to-25-percent die-size penalty nor a
higher price tag should hamper the acceptance of RDRAM for
high-performance PCs.
The panel, organized at the Warburg Dillon Read technology conference
last week, included Rambus Inc. chief executive Geoff Tate along with
representatives from DRAM suppliers and test-and-assembly executives.
Die size is the most critical handicap for Rambus parts and is not
likely to see improvement soon, panelists said. For Micron, 128-Mbit
Rambus parts are 20 to 25 percent larger than their synchronous-DRAM
counterparts, said Jeff Mailloux, DRAM marketing manager for Micron
Technology Inc. (Boise, Idaho). Samsung Semiconductors Inc. claimed a
similar number, while Hyundai Electronics quoted 10 to 15 percent.
Those figures reflect the amount of work it takes to adjust to RDRAM
technology, panelists said. Die size is being sacrificed as
manufacturers concentrate on keeping yields high, said Avo Kanadjian,
senior vice president of memory marketing for Samsung.
"Sometimes a slightly [bigger] die size and a slightly improved yield
can be a good deal," he said.
Farhad Tabrizi, director of strategic marketing for Hyundai, said
DRAM makers had gotten "sloppy" with simpler parts such as
extended-data-out memories and would hit technological barriers that
were likely to prevent a blitzkrieg ramp-up of Rambus production.
"We just have to learn to deal with it," Tabrizi said. "At this time
at Hyundai, the die size is 10 percent [larger than SDRAMs], but there
are other, additional factors that disable us."
Rambus' price premium over SDRAM was not seen as a barrier by
panelists, who believe that PC OEMs will pay extra for the added
performance. One example mentioned repeatedly was the Sony Playstation
2, which uses Rambus' memory architecture to drive its ultra-high-end
graphics.
Rambus remains more expensive than SDRAMs, but panelists refused to
classify the two as competitors, saying they aim for different uses. As
DRAMs enter a new age where different types of memory apply to
dif-ferent devices, high-per-formance parts are worth more, panelists
argued, and Rambus' price tag should be irrelevant.
"Rambus is this nice, fast, sexy device. You want performance, you've
got to pay for it. There is no free lunch," Tabrizi said.
Memories account for 5 to 7 percent of a PC's cost these days,
Kanadjian said; panelists believe PC OEMs are willing to see that inch
up to nearly 10 percent for Rambus. "The OEM criteria is to have the
Rambus memory fit within the budget they've allocated," Kanadjian said.
Panelists' belief was that rather than compete with Rambus, the PC133
architecture will be relegated to the bottom of the sub-$1,000 PC zone,
"a natural evolution for the really low end," Tabrizi said.
In the end, whether Rambus can carry a premium depends largely on
demand. "If the supply exceeds the demand, the market will set the
price," Kanadjian said. "It [Rambus] is a commodity part, and it will
be a commodity part."
Potential problems with royalties, packaging and testability all were
dismissed by panelists, who said the royalties aren't causing concern
and the infrastructure will be in place for Rambus DRAMs to hit the PC
market. Tate of Rambus said his goal, admittedly "aggressive," was to
have RDRAM match SDRAM for testability, packaging and PC-board cost by
the end of 2000.
One question that arose was whether Rambus' strategy might strand its
memories at the high end, unable to decrease prices enough to become
attractive for mainstream PCs and unable to attract the mainstream
volumes that would help drive prices down.
Tate said that money from high-end PCs-which he said account for 20
percent of the systems market-should suffice to fund engineering
improvements to drive down costs, which in turn would help Rambus find
eventual acceptance in mainstream PCs. And the high-end demand really
exists, he said: "We've got design wins already that require Rambus."
Other suppliers on the panel were convinced that Rambus would migrate
down the PC price chain, just as other high-end features have done.
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