Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Keep Your Eye On The Ball - Watch List -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TFF who wrote (1244)	6/12/1999 11:32:00 AM
From: CanynGirl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2802

WEEKDAY E-MAIL from Barron's Online. THIS IS INTERNET WEEK IN BARRON'S ONLINE We're sending you this special e-mail to tell you about Internet Week, which begins Monday, June 14th, in Barron's Online. This week, Barron's Online focuses on the impact of the Internet on the world of business and investing. From Monday to Thursday, special expanded Weekday Traders will analyze how the Internet is changing industries like technology, financial services and health care, and which companies and stocks are most likely to benefit. Tuesday's Electronic Q&A interviews Ryan Jacob, manager of the Internet Fund, who will also discuss Internet stocks live with readers on Wednesday, June 16th at 8:00 PM Eastern time. Also on Wednesday, John C. Dvorak will write a special column on the future of the Internet, and Website of the Week will appear Thursday. We hope you'll visit the site frequently this week for our Internet Week coverage -- and every week for the original, incisive financial journalism you've come to expect from Barron's Online. Howard R. Gold Editor Howard Gold Editor of Barron's Online

To: TFF who wrote (1244)	6/12/1999 12:51:00 PM
From: CanynGirl	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2802

- broadband rollout bogged down Can you cite a reference for why you say that? This is the first year that broadband is actually experiencing significant growth. For example, Pac Bell has claimed they will have dsl coverage of 50% of their California customers by year end. That's up from a nominal amount last year. Athome moved up my service availability by 6 months. You can now buy PC's out of the box with DSL modems (i.e. Compaq). On top of that, growth of broadband chip suppliers like BRCM and TERN have been and are forecasted to be pretty darn good this year. TERN's revenues grew from aproximately 2mil in Q198 to roughly 16mil in Q199. North American cable subscribers reached 800,000 in Q199 and forecasted to surpass 1 million this quarter. The number of Telco central offices equipped with ADSL service doubled from Q498 to Q199. And as a side note, you have VOD trials starting next quarter. That's just off the top of my head. The nets need immediacy of earnings potential and or growth prospects to attract momentum When did the growth prospects go away? Forrester Research has forecasted that 25% of the 'World' economy will be done online by 2005. Today it's a drop in the bucket compared to that forecast. Not to mention, Settops are set to flood the market over the next 9 months. That means ma & pa computer phobic will be getting online (oh joy). And let's not forget Japan's economy is improving (though it still has a long way to go) and Asia will be significant contributors to online growth. Net reveunes will increase even more with broadband as broadband users are online more and are more active. In fact broadband users made about 40% more purchases than analog modem users according to ZD market intelligence. Another little fun fact, % of online users who made online purchases in Dec 98 was roughly 65%. In April 99, it was 75% according to a variety of sources. So the big drop in online purchases predicted for the first half didn't happen. CYQ2 is typically the nets best quarter and most analysts are predicting strong earnings. CMGI has predicted 2-3 times revenue growth. LCOS is predicted to turn positive. PCLN's growth was increased after reporting record sales last month. NITE has already said this is a record quarter. Those are just the ones off the top of my head, I'm sure I'm missing alot. AOL's subscriber growth is predicted to slow down this quarter, however, you must note that their subscriber growth typically slows down in this quarter. Revenue/customer growth is still what I look at. I think companies are doing the right thing by pushing earnings out to ensure they'll be around 5 years from now. What I see is that the nets ran too high too fast, and they got way ahead of themselves along with an influx of new net stocks. They're taking a breather in low volume summer trading. CYQ2 earnings should be a catalyst to prop them up a bit. The addition of all the new net stocks just mean you have to be 'choosier'. And of course the second issue of inflation fears which hits retail and growth stocks (with high valuations) the hardest. I still believe inflation is a short term issue mainly because the internet economy makes it very difficult for companies to raise prices. As more purchases go online, the more companies are limited in raising prices. As we discussed earlier, the winners will be the volume leaders and those that add value such as exceptional customer service. The 'big' money will flow to those guys and they will be the best ones to trade. JMHO of course. ;)