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Pastimes : Kosovo -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: George Papadopoulos who wrote (11618)	6/12/1999 3:54:00 PM
From: goldsnow	Respond to of 17770

Possible Goal of Russian Troops The race to Pristina may have been significant for more than simple political reasons. In the hills outside Pristina is a massive underground airbase, built to withstand both Soviet invasion and nuclear bombardment. The complex is one of the most valuable military facilities not only in Kosovo, but also in Yugoslavia as a whole. Yet, under the terms of the UN Security Council resolution, it will fall under the control of KFOR. Given that Yugoslav forces hope one day to return to Kosovo, and would prefer not to have to rout the KLA or its successor from the airbase, Yugoslav military officials may have requested the Russian sprint to Pristina to guarantee that the base fell under the control of friendly KFOR troops. 1630 GMT, 990612 - Publicity Stunt or Crisis? Moscow has settled on an explanation for the entry of Russian troops into Kosovo. According to the latest version, Russian President Boris Yeltsin approved the entry of Russian troops into Kosovo, despite a failure to coordinate with NATO, but left it to the Russian defense ministry to determine the timing of the entry. Apparently, Russian envoy Viktor Chernomyrdin was not informed of the decision and, if he is telling the truth, neither was Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov. Last night, Ivanov called the deployment a mistake, and assured NATO that the Russian troops would be ordered to withdraw. The troops have not departed, nor do they show signs of leaving. In fact, additional Russian SFOR troops in Bosnia have reportedly moved toward the Yugoslav border and Yeltsin has promoted the general commanding the troops that entered Kosovo. NATO, which was taken by surprise by the deployment after having received and accepted assurances from Ivanov that Russia would wait to coordinate with NATO, has attempted to downplay the incident, calling it at worst a "publicity stunt." The situation does not appear to be that clear. Either Ivanov is a strikingly good actor or, as appears to be the case, he was truly surprised by the movement of troops. There is no doubt that Chernomyrdin was kept out of the loop. The question is, just how central was Yeltsin to the incident and ongoing situation? Did he approve the move before or after the fact? Yeltsin has made a career of following the shifting winds of Russian politics – a trait partially responsible for his renowned erratic and impulsive decision making. He is also simply prone to impulsive and emotional outbursts. Did Yeltsin, noting the outrage in Russia over NATO's treatment of Russia as an insignificant junior partner, take proactive steps to position himself as defiantly asserting Russian interests? Or did Yeltsin, presented with a fait accompli by his own military, quickly assess who had support in Moscow and wholeheartedly embrace the military's decision? Either way, and whether or not Yeltsin's move saved his job, the deployment and reinforcement of Russian troops in Kosovo at odds with NATO's desires signals a dramatic shift in the balance of power within Moscow. Chernomyrdin's sellout of Russian and Yugoslav interests was the last straw for Russia's military and political hard-liners. Russia's moderates are now in retreat. Whether the consummate political weathervane, Yeltsin, can manage the transition in Moscow within the constitutional political process remains to be seen. Power Struggle Erupts in Moscow Possible Race to Pristina Autonomy or Independence -- Postponed but not Forgotten Unresolved Issues Erupt in First KFOR Crisis Job Security for Milosevic [more Stratfor Commentary] stratfor.com