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Technology Stocks : America On-Line (AOL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jenne who wrote (21591)	6/12/1999 12:46:00 PM
From: ChinuSFO	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 41369

There are 3 days that are crucial for a reversal or a free fall. Reversal would cause DOW to go past 11K whereas a free fall would take the DOW to 9.5K according to some analysts. The three dates are CPI numbers coming out on Wednesday 16, the next is triple witching on Friday 18 and the third is June 29 2:15 pm when the FED/OMC comes out with the anticipated increase in rates. If CPI numbers do not live upto investor expectations, the expect a drop of the DOW to 10K by the time the FED meets. After the FED meeting, investors will get a good feel for the playing field. After that meeting, I expect a small summer rally fueled primarily by the semis (Intels super chip, AMAT/NVLS/LRCX primarily benefitting from the Asian turnaround, CSCO/SUNW the Internet hardware suppliers). This will soon be followed by the earnings season. That will provide another checkpoint for the direction of the market. So in short we have to hold off till the month end

To: Jenne who wrote (21591)	6/12/1999 5:37:00 PM
From: Frank Ellis Morris	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 41369

Jenne. I do not think that anyone should feel that the internet will disappear and that the phenomenon will be over. E-Commerce is soaring but now investors are no longer willing to chase internet stocks into cyberspace.They have been paying stock prices at any height just to have a piece of the action. What we have seen lately is a breakdown on AOL. Long time shareholders do not want to be left holding the bag and people may have got burnt on margin calls? The AOL internet service provider is blue chip and it does make money but its stock price has already discounted earnings for many years to come. The big bad wolf of rising interest rates is huffing to blow our house of internet stocks down and at lofty valuation where is the floor of solid support?? Even at 99.50 per share who wants to pay 300 times earnings for a radical and volatile stock like AOL when they can get 6% yield on a 30 year long bond? The fall of AOL below 100 on Friday does not present a buying opportunity but presents a red alert to consider getting the hell out in a hurry. Now you have Dell offering free service access in Europe and this only creates the perception that AOL's revenues will be challenged and will result in lower earnings. CMGI got the crap kicked out of it on Friday on much lower then expected earnings. I just do not see any catalyst to cause AOL to rise other than a brief sucker rally. Who wants to be in a stock that is down over 40% with no clear direction of how much lower it may go?. Institutions and Brokerages house are caught with a lot of shares and they may be trying to unload but want to get the stock price up a bit hoping they can upgrade it long enough to bail out. Dell upsets Europe's Net-service landscape LONDON (CBS.MW) -- Dell Computer's move to launch a subscription-free Internet service provider with British Telecommunications has raised the stakes in the European ISP market. Dubbed DellNet, the venture will be pre-installed on the company's home and small-business line of computers and also be available through the computer maker's Web site. Dell (DELL: news, msgs) has launched a British-based ISP and says it will be rolling out service in Germany and France later in the month. The computer maker also hopes to move into other European countries later this year. "There's almost nothing that's pan-European [so] the multi-country aspect adds another competitive dimension," said researcher James Eibisch of International Data Corp. AOL Europe only offers its ISP in five European countries -- and it still charges a monthly fee on top of phone charges for Internet access whereas DellNet users will only pay for local telephone calls to their ISP. There is really much to think about here and I would be very cautious Best Wishes Frank