To: Investor2 who wrote (1761 ) 6/12/1999 6:52:00 PM From: Step1 Respond to
Investor2, I think it is too early to be talking about a consensus for the simple reason that these numbers were largely unexpected and that they didn't allow a consensus to form yet. I suspect I will now be in the minority as some euphoria sweeps people into the bullish camp. I posted generally negative points, I will stay negative until I see a reason to change, so far I think that major changes have not happened. If the Japanese public and Japan escape with only the limited amount of damage we have seen so far, then they can count themselves lucky. The stock market always tries to anticipate news 6 months to a year ahead, and while I have no doubt that at one point Japanese businesses will at some point be profitable and growing, I think we may still see some stumble between now and that time; in simple words I am short-term (days to weeks) bullish, bearish later in the summer and fall and long term still undecided, lack of information , too many things that need to happen in the future may not be foretold yet, but nevertheless, at some point, no matter how dire the situation gets, things always work themselves out, so I will eventually have to turn bullish.
