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To: Meathead who wrote (132526)	6/12/1999 5:59:00 PM
From: Bald Eagle	Respond to of 176387

Meathead talking to Spongebrain .. LOL Could only happen on the internet!!

To: Meathead who wrote (132526)	6/12/1999 6:02:00 PM
From: edamo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

metathead...re" "risk/reward".....as always, excellent post your "age" is showing, along with your wisdom...20% per annum, sheeesh, i aim for 12-15%, and over the years, life has been good... how do you think these "nouveau stock traders", would prosper in an 18% prime rate environment....when all you know is "easy"...it's difficult to survive when "hard" comes along.... " a fool and his money.... ".....meat can you slide my chips to the "even line"?....so, roll the dice! cheers, ed a.

To: Meathead who wrote (132526)	6/12/1999 7:52:00 PM
From: Mehitabel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Meathead-- terrific post. very impressive argument. thanks :o)

To: Meathead who wrote (132526)	6/12/1999 9:47:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 176387

Meathead, thanks for an incisive post. I think you should repost it on some other threads. I stopped posting on the AOL thread because of the flaming I received back in February/March when I was trying to warn people away from momentum investing in AOL. I have a long position, but when the price began to become stratospheric I started writing calls. And when the price hit $175 I wrote October $130s. I am not posting this to gloat. Simply, I am trying to point out how foolish and dangerous it is to play the momentum game. What will happen to those people who are leveraged to the hilt if we ever see a bear market? Even a mild one, like 1994, will wipe a lot of folks out. And the sad part is that there is no need for that to happen. If people paid at least some attention to the price of the stocks they are buying in relation to the growth prospects they might avoid some very costly mistakes. That was what prompted me to get out of CSCO at $118. That was what prompted me to warn people on this thread when started moving over $40 in anticipation of Q4 earnings. So, at the risk of offending some of my friends on this thread, let me reiterate some basics: 1. Maintain a well-diversified portfolio of at least 12 - 15 equities; 2. Don't try to time the market -- hold good quality companies for the long run; 3. Avoid margin -- it is a killer in down markets; 4. If valuations get insane consider exiting or hedging by writing deep in the money calls; 5. Exit a position when the long-term fundamentals become negative. I am sure that people can add more items for prudent portfolio management, but I think these 5 rules will keep most people out of trouble. TTFN, CTC

To: Meathead who wrote (132526)	6/13/1999 9:59:00 PM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 176387

<<Here is something to help you understand why people 'bother' with these so called 'old timer' stocks. People analyze stodgy blue chips because they have millions to invest, not tens of thousands. Seasoned pros know that over the long haul, 20% per year is an amazing feat and difficult to achieve. That's why companies like Dell are important. They are huge and are leaders in their industry and won't go down the tubes like 90% of the unproven internet companies eventually will. They have the potential to appreciate greater than 20% per year and perform better than the SP500. It's all about risk vs. reward. The big money of a veteran investor doesn't need to be subjected to excessive risk. Small time traders are drawn in to high risk issues by the allure of a quick score.>> Meathead: Thanks for sharing some great insights on investing. There are clearly too many people searching for "the next hot stock." If most investors (including the Fund Managers) would buy very high quality tech stocks AND were as patient as Kemble and William B. Michaels --- they would be in pretty good shape <GG>. The Buy and Hold Strategy has worked quite well for some of the highest performing Fund Families (like Janus and Legg Mason). We all need to learn to have a longer time horizon for our investments. My grandfather has taught the rest of my family quite a bit about this. Yet, there is still room for improvement <GG>. I'll leave the thread with some interesting quotes that may apply to the investing field: "A problem well-defined is half-solved." --John Dewey "Experience is the name everyone gives to their mistakes." --Oscar Wilde "Everything that deceives may be said to enchant." --Plato "Everybody gets so much information all day long that they lose their common sense." --Gertrude Stein "I was seldom able to see an opportunity until it had ceased to be one. --Mark Twain "The truth is more important than the facts." --Frank Lloyd Wright "The real voyage of discovery consists not in seeking new landscapes, but in having new eyes." --Marcel Proust "Experience is the toughest teacher because she gives the test first, and then the lesson." --Unknown "In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it is a weighing machine." --Ben Graham (a Warren Buffet mentor) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Best Regards, Scott

To: Meathead who wrote (132526)	6/14/1999 12:32:00 AM
From: SpongeBrain	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

** Spongebrain's rebuttal ** "With that kind of easy money attitude, I'll bet you haven't been around long enough to get burned 100% to the downside in some of these volatile issues. You talk like these internet issues are guaranteed to move in the direction you place your bet. Who ever said "easy money"? I spend ample time outside of trading hours to find plays. YOU are an investor, I am a trader. These 2 things are apples and oranges. I am looking for volatility, I dont care if its to the up or downside, there money to be made either way. >They are huge and are leaders in their industry and won't go down the tubes like 90% of the unproven internet companies eventually will. From this statement, I can see you only play the long side. Who says people are holding these stocks? In fact, for the past 2 months, 70% of my trades have been shorts. If the nets crumble like you say, I will be able to retire! I hope you're right MeatBrain! >>You can and will eventually get badly burned if you play with high risk issues because it is, in it's purest sense, 'gambling' and the house usually wins. What are you talking about? Why does 'the house' necessarily always win? Stocks are not a zero sum game. Please elaborate on this point, you lost me. >>People analyze stodgy blue chips because they have millions to invest, not tens of thousands. I was referring to the scores of people on this thread who are prognosticating ad nauseum whether DELL will be 30 or 40, not fund managers who have billions to invest. Yes, the only reason DELL went so high, is b/c all the idiot fund managers and individual investors piled into the same stocks. MSFT, CSCO, DELL, AOL et al. all have insane valuations compared to anything in their respective subsectors. This doesn't make them quality stocks, just stocks that have a lot of sheep minded buyers over the course of several years. >>Seasoned pros know that over the long haul, 20% per year is an amazing feat and difficult to achieve The internet has changed the way the markets function, and if you are unable to adapt and/or take advantage of the new order, then by all means, enjoy your 20% per year. >>>That's why companies like Dell are important. They are huge and are leaders in their industry and won't go down the tubes like 90% of the unproven internet companies eventually will. They have the potential to appreciate greater than 20% per year and perform better than the SP500. Take another look at your DELL. The PC market has changed, and you still dont 'get it'. The internet has changed the economics of PC sales. Anyone with a screwdriver and an HTML page can sell PC's over the internet. Enjoy going to bed with your 'safe' 80 BILLION dollar boxmaker, which even a college kid can undercut. You deserve to have your DELL holdings cut in half over the last few months. DELL is a VERY unsound play, but it has been beaten up so badly, that I may buy some at these lower prices just to spite you, haha! >>Sadly, when winnings mount, greed overwhelms and they keep upping the ante by margining. They are always one bad call away from losing it all. Says who? Don't assume everyone is as undiciplined as you once were to learn your tough lessons. I dont know of a single daytrader who could "lose it all" from 1 bad trade, no one but you could be so foolish to not be more diversified than that. >>... and they are usually gambling with borrowed money! "Usually"? Again, says who? These sensationalistic generalizations make you look foolish. >>It's all about risk vs. reward. The big money of a veteran investor doesn't need to be subjected to excessive risk Again, you couldn't be more wrong. I go home holding nothing but cash every night. I never take a loss of more than 2-4% on a trade. You rant and rave about risk like a babbling baboon , yet you calmly watch your DELL dwindle 50% over the last few months and still feel safe about it?!?!? HAHAHAHHAH! Daytrading is 100 times safer then holding obscenely overvalued tech stocks in this 5th year of a tired bull market. Good luck to you! You'll need it more than I.

To: Meathead who wrote (132526)	8/3/1999 2:37:00 PM
From: SpongeBrain	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Yes, Meatman, SO GLAD your warnings came true!! As you said, the nets have melted! This has been my best month so far! AOL AMZN earings confirmed the slide. It was so clear that if good earings didnt move the nets up, then NOTHING would, and that there were herds of people running for the exits...Thats when i went short, bigtime. Please , I beg you, forget your sillly stodgy DELL. I hope you were also short the nets, as you were also aware of their insane valuations.