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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Casaubon who wrote (17040)	6/12/1999 10:42:00 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

It is mainly an eye thing. Note the FDX chart on my site which stretches the eye thing to the maximum. The stock was still falling but I threw a fork on it with the bottom tine floating in mid air. That is why I put the warning on the chart to not trust it but it was my best guess as there was no good lines I could find. As of Friday, the price bounced right off where I drew that tine. Now before I break my arm patting myself onthe back, it could still explode Monday. <g> The way you are supposed to draw a fork is pick a significant starting point for the tine. Mainly a significant high or low such as Oct 8th on many stocks. Then the top and bottomtines are significant highs and lows after that tine. The main rule to remember is if you used a low for your middle tine, then the first tine you draw after that should be off a high then do the lower tine last. If you used a high for your middle tine starting point, then you should do the lower tine first and the top tine last. In other words they alternate. The main things I look for are fit. When I draw a fork, the upper and lower tines should contain limits inthe stock price. Then the middle tine should fall along significant attraction and repel points. In other words, as the middle tine ran along past prices, did the price bounce off the upper tines and fall to the middle tine, hesitate then either bounce or fall to the lower tin after spending a fair amount of time around the middle tine. If not, I look for another fork. This is most important the longer the time frame you are forking. The short term forks are harder because there isn't as much history thus they fail more often. This is why it is a big deal when one of my long term forks fail such as the DRG index and this weekend the DTX. The failure of the DTX this week changed my mood decisively more to the bearish side than I was before I noticed this. By the way, all my charts are updated at the MDA site and my site. I will comment on the market later. MDA site homestead.com My site home.att.net Good Luck, Lee