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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LLCF who wrote (17090)	6/12/1999 11:51:00 PM
From: Robert Rose	Respond to of 99985

bearish on the S&P. eom

To: LLCF who wrote (17090)	6/13/1999 12:04:00 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

>>next 15% [S&P] are up/down and within 3 months<< IMO this thread doesn't operate that way. We all trade different time frames and change our minds with the market. I know I don't fit your definition at all but my view right now is ... Down st the beginning of this week, then whipsaw as triple witch approaches, then probably J6P upward close Friday near the end of the day depending on where we are in relation to the Max Pain point on the OEX. Mid term is hazy still until the FOMC meets. I don't try to fight the fed or use a crystal ball. Long term, I am not in the total all out crash scenario camp. I tend to fall into the long drawn out downward grinding to flat camp as earnings catchup and approach historical valuation equilibrium. with mini corrections and mini rallies along the way. Pan back and look at some charts at random some time. Stock price growth has slowed in this market on a rotational basis. It started last year and has slowly been moving from sector to sector. Small caps got hammered then stalled trading flat Semis were next, then IT, services and Y2K stocks did the same. The rotation scenario has been going on for a long time under everyone's noses while they were screaming about the higher DOW not noticing it was on fewer and fewer stocks. Ichart a lot, and I mean a lot of stocks. By my estimation, 80-90% have lower PE ratios now than they did 2 years ago and most have prices to match. However the few that have beenused to prop up the indexes are at higher PE ratios than ever and are so inflated it is scary. Draw a long term fork on GTW then see what it did this week. Dell last couple of weeks, etc. The boxmakers turn is now apparently. I do play both sides and just go with the flow. I could be bearish tonight and a bull on Monday. I do what my charts say since they don't listen to me. <ggg> Good Luck, Lee

To: LLCF who wrote (17090)	6/13/1999 12:15:00 AM
From: jjs_ynot	Respond to of 99985

I am not sure that bullish or bearish describes my trading style. I merely try to identify the current trends and play the direction of that trend. Short term indicators are indicating more downside to get away from overbought conditions for several days. At that point, option expiration pressure will probably produce several days of upside ending next week about where we ended this week. Expect lots of crosscurrents until the increased economic activity and higher interest rates can produce a new "equilibrium" in the market.

To: LLCF who wrote (17090)	6/13/1999 12:19:00 AM
From: Vitas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

40 posts guy, you have to hang around a bit longer and get a feel for the situation. Good Luck Vitas

To: LLCF who wrote (17090)	6/13/1999 12:31:00 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

David; techstocks.com I find watching it, to be a fairly good opposite indicator it's sitting on 4 now but that's the result of just 14 votes if it was more votes and that High I would short every thing in sight. Jim

To: LLCF who wrote (17090)	6/13/1999 12:32:00 AM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

David, my opinion of the market is very short term most of the time as the indicators are in constant flux. i have no view three months out. currently my posture is bearish in spite of my options indicators telling me i shouldn't be too bearish. but right now i feel that the backup in interest rates and the damage done to the charts of many critical issues overwhelm all other considerations. the turning back of the 1%EMA of a/d's at the zero line that Vitas has pointed out several times is another facet that worries me to no end. i fear the market can weaken considerably from here, but i tend to be flexible. if something happens that gives me sufficient reason to change my mind, i will do so. regards, hb