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Strategies & Market Trends : Befriend the Trend Trading -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dr. Stoxx who wrote (4202)	6/13/1999 10:36:00 AM
From: the options strategist	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 39683

I have been trading VOD as a rolling option play (long on lower trend line and short on higher trend line) for a while (aggressive play) for fliping and where it is now is where I'd short for another roll. With a very tight stop of course. The behavior has been very predictable (and profitable) but risky. Thanks for the BTTT explanation. I think I'm beginning to get the hang of the method. jj

To: Dr. Stoxx who wrote (4202)	6/13/1999 10:41:00 AM
From: Dr. Stoxx	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 39683

SOME SOBER WORDS REMINDING US TO KEEP OUR FOCUS ON THE SHORT SIDE THROUGH THE SUMMER: <<Will Stocks Belly Flop This Summer? By Pierre Belec NEW YORK (Reuters) - Come back in. The water's fine! Yes, those brave investors are wading back into stocks. But the trend spotters expect the market to belly flop, possibly in a repeat of last summer's bone-jarring dive. Some experts say there could be a drop of some 30 percent that would drag the Dow Jones industrial average to the 7,800 level of last summer, when Wall Street was shaken by economic bloodletting in Asia, Russia and Latin America. Many of the foreign countries whose sick economies dogged last year's market are getting better, but the problem this time seems to be the exuberant U.S. economy. The world's largest economy is so hot that the bankers at the Federal Reserve may want to cool things down. In anticipation of the Fed's move to raise interest rates, bond yields have jumped to the highest level in more than a year, standing above the psychological barrier of 6 percent. This is causing a lot of worries that the increased cost of borrowing will cut spending by companies and consumers. Now, people are waiting for the other shoe to drop. It could come when the central bank's interest rate-setting group has a two-day meeting on June 29-30. The betting is that the Fed will hike the rates to take some froth off the steaming economy and head off inflationary pressures. An interest-rate hike would highlight the overvaluation of the stock market, which some experts say has been priced out of this world vis-a-vis corporate earnings. ''Our study shows the Standard & Poor's index is 40 percent overvalued, and a fair value would put it in the area of 1,000 and put the Dow around 7,400,'' said Don Hays, veteran chief investment officer for Wheat First Union in Richmond, Va.>> (source: Yahoo Financial News) TC.