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To: Steve who wrote (21665)6/13/1999 12:03:00 PM
From: CGarcia  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 41369
 
Nice gloom and doom scenario, but if I'm a fool for being long at $171, then what would it make you if you buy at $60, expecting the stock to drop to $15-$23?

Just another man's opinion.



To: Steve who wrote (21665)6/13/1999 5:20:00 PM
From: Frank Ellis Morris  Respond to of 41369
 
>>

Let's do the math in realistic terms :

Stock is at ~$99
Estimates for Year June 1999 are .30(low end)-.45(high end)
Even if you gave this stock a P/E multiple of 100 (which is very high in this present
jittery interest rate environment), the stock is worth between $30-45 maximum, on
present earnings. Worse off, if you say the P/E should be 50, the fair value is
$15-23/share.

Taking into account the interest rate environment and competition coming online
from various areas, I can't see stomaching this risk/reward ratio any longer. I sold
2000 shares at 150 (that I bot at 50)........and I have a stop loss order in at 97 to sell my
last lot that I bot at 90 and 105.<<

Steve you have hit the bullseye here and I think this troubles everyone at this time. If you recall the internets were on a tear immediately following the Fed's rate cuts and now with the impending danger of slowing the money supply we could loose much of the gain the internet stocks enjoyed over the past several months.

Congratulation on getting out at 150 with 2000 shares. I did not have the vision to see what you did. My red alert signal did not go off until just when the stock went under 100. The stock should have never went this low but I do not see anything turning it around since now the pe of 300 is most problematic for investors. My gut feeling is that institutions want out and they will try to upgrade the stock to do this. Hey maybe we will get a dead cat bounce. Like you I think one will need to take too much rolaids or mylanta staying around.

Frank