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Microcap & Penny Stocks : NEOTHERAPEUTICS (NEOT) (NEOTW) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Marty who wrote (682)	6/15/1999 2:33:00 PM
From: Marty	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 705

It's too bad that all the shareholders couldn't attend the shareholder meeting. There was more explanation of the test information that was released a couple of weeks ago and they gave their reasoning on why they are doing the secondary issue, even though they have enough cash available for now. While they released the information that 72% of the patients that took Neotrofin improved, they did not say in the release that only 25% of the patients improved on the same test with Exelon or Aricept. They also did not mention in the press release that Neotrofin is active sooner, within hours, and it lasts much longer with much better results and no adverse effects than Aricept or Exelon, which are the only 2 drugs on the market for Alzheimer's patients. It is hard to keep track of all the comparisons they showed because there are so many and they are all so impressive. It would be great if they would put the same slides they showed at the meeting up on their web site, as well as the most recent annual report. There was a very good slide on all the tests they have completed showing number of patients and results as well as what tests are now in progress. The charts on efficacy are very impressive but need a bit of explanation. They can do that very well if they chose. The main consideration is to get the drug to market and through the FDA process rather than explaining it all to analysts and shareholders. Nevertheless, what can be disclosed to investors without any harm or risk should be given consideration. The secondary issue should not be dilutive and will allow larger funds and institutions to take a position in the company. I'm told that if the stock is placed well with those kind of investors, the trading float won't increase at all... which makes sense. As it is, Neotherapeutics has fewer shares outstanding than all other companies in the same field. With 4 million AZ patients in this country alone and only 10% of them taking Neotrofin, that represents 400,000 patients. The target price, at just the same rate as Aricept, is $2,000 per patient per year. That represents $800,000,000 a year in sales, conservatively. If they only make 30% margin, and they think they can improve that with full production, that's $240,000,000 a year profit. With about 10,000,000 shares outstanding, that is about $24 earnings per share. Put any multiple you want on it and that is the potential. Incidentally, besides the 8 or 10 other target diseases they have targeted, there are some 103 additional products they see some application potential. It is all a matter of allocating resources now to Neotrofin to market. The corporate alliance was discussed again and, all things considered, doesn't help them do this. It may validate some analysts view of them for a stock recommendation but that is not a long term benefit. As it is, they have been contacted by every single pharma in the industry to make an alliance for marketing and they are now getting offers of 3 times the amount they were offered last year. That is a significant validation, coming from outside scientists from big companies in the same field who have researched their test data and methods before they make offers of any kind. So, holding off making an alliance for now is a strategy that works out best now for the stockholders. If and when they need marketing help, it may be a different story but by then the drug will have been proven and will be risk free for the company who gets to market it.