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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LindyBill who wrote (2612)	6/13/1999 3:19:00 PM
From: gdichaz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

To LindyBill: Thanks. He clearly hasn't a clue re CDMA or the Q. Somewhat surprising, but again it goes to a basic problem with the Gorilla Game as some sort of Bible for application throughout all forms of technology . The authors were very well familiar with the software aspects of computers and their perception and analysis is excellent thereon, and the general principles they derived are extremely useful as analytical tools IMO. But at times trying to apply the "rules" derived from one area of technology to another suffer pains from the journey. Savy folks like Mike Buckley can do that very very well but for reasons which are perplexing, Moore is either not interested or doesn't have the time to deal with a central point of (non)knowledge on his part in telecom. Too bad. In fairness, he said all the right caveats, but his answer is very discouraging to me and perhaps others who find the TGG a useful analytical tool. Chaz too PS Perhaps this is a lesson in the need for a minimum of substantive homework before offering an opinion in an area where your knowledge is limited - to say the least.

To: LindyBill who wrote (2612)	6/13/1999 4:52:00 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Respond to of 54805

I'm as surprised as I am grateful that Geoff Moore responded to an e-mail not submitted to his list-serv. He didn't have to do that. My thanks to him. Now, specific comments about his response. Here's the key question for Qualcomm. How much proprietary control did they have to give up over CDMA in order to get the Ericcson deal? I am not close enough to the situation to know, but I had inferred from the press coverage I read that basically they had to essentially open up the standard and relinquish control to get the deal. That's what you need to find out. That response is one heck of a lot less dogmatic than the one I posted on the thread awhile back. It suggests that he really has no informed opinion. Most of us who have done our due diligence on the Q would strongly disagree with his initial thinking that the Q relinquished control to get the Ericsson deal. Just the opposite, I know of no control that was relinquished and would appreciate someone pointing out the error of my thinking. His opinions are based on his inferences from the press coverage. The CDMA story has too much history and complexity to infer something as important as the potential for gorilla status from press coverage of the Qualcomm/Ericsson deal. Even so, I'd be very interested in seeing the press coverage that gave him the impression Qualcomm's deal with Ericsson relinquished control of CDMA. Now, supposing they did [relinquish control... But they didn't, so we'll simply skip past the scenarios he presented under the assumption that they did. I would be shocked if it [the telecomm market] had granted Qualcomm gorilla rights for CDMA. That being the case, I hope Geoff doesn't have high blood pressure. Shock ain't good for him. :) But, as I said, I do not have the facts here... Not to be unkind, but that last comment just about says it all. I couldn't agree more. My guess is that Moore would disagree when Gilder says that QCOM is the Intel of wireless communication. Remembering that Gilder re-emphasized that after the Ericsson deal was made, I would also guess that Gilder agrees with most of us that the Q did not relinquish control. If the Q had relinquished control it would be hard to imagine how they could retain their status as the Intel of wireless. So what we have here is two hig-tech insiders who strongly disagree with each other, Gilder who feels he has the facts and Moore who acknowledges that he doesn't. Hmmmm. Seriously, folks. I don't mean to come down hard on Geoff Moore. I'm very grateful for his book. But I really don't understand why he continues to take a probable position about the CDMA space when he acknowledges that he doesn't have the facts. It just doesn't make any sense to me. --Mike Buckley