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Technology Stocks : PRI Automation (PRIA) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (692)	6/14/1999 12:27:00 AM
From: Barry	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1214

Ian, Regarding the Daifuku rumor, or PRIA's 'monopoly', I don't know what is fact or fiction. Perhaps my gospel is there is no gospel. PRI (via Lehman...and Smart Money, too) pump's it's '90% of market share' in North America and Europe...although I haven't done the DD to verify the veracity of this...it's hard to believe they'll maintain this '90%' market share, especially since it is my understanding that Asyst provides a solution that is less costly (doesn't require the great lengths fabs normally go through to ensure as large a particle free atmosphere). There will be more than one winner, in any case, if the revenues for each fab will jump from the 10million range to 40million for the transition to 300mm. How much are you willing to pay as a multiple of sales? I wanted to grab some at 3x trailing twelve months or 22, but it fell shy of that by a buck or two. If I felt they'd maintain a 4.5 or 5 x multiple as revenues ramped up, I guess I wouldn't mind paying mid-30s. I'm just not so sure it's that great of a bargain right now....ala adams harkness of darkness. Here's the future as I see it. Revenues for this quarter are going to be weak. Book to bill will look good. Mitchell will pump the future for all its worth (he's done it for each of the past few quarters, even when the outlook stunk, so i'm guessing here the past predicts the future). The two dollar question: will the brokerages decide to pump and dump the stock, or will they downgrade PRI to grab as many shares as they can to make a fortune on the future? Either way, I hope the stock price falls into my buying range before the stock skyrockets on the hyped transition. How do you like that crap? :P barry