Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : DAYTRADING Fundamentals -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bilow who wrote (645)	6/13/1999 6:51:00 PM
From: TraderAlan	Respond to of 18137

Carl, Two problems: First, the 97 to 98 bond bull move was much stronger and carried further than those preceding it. The current drop may only be a counter trend correction. Second, the bond (and yield) are both approaching major resistance from here to 6.2%. The SP has been correcting for over 3 months but many technicians are missing it because they have a bias that it has to have a greater angle of declination. The last correction (7 to 10/98) was the sharpest drop since 1990 and shook out major multiyear selling pressure. Time corrects trends just as well as price. Also, corrections tend to alternate between significant/complex and moderate/simple and the last was obviously severe. I agree that stocks and the bond yield can't both rise over time without one turning. But I'm sure you'll agree that they can and do track each other for significant periods of time. Now you assume it will be stocks that roll to follow the bonds. But with bonds now at resistance, the odds favor their reversal, not stocks. Alan

To: Bilow who wrote (645)	6/13/1999 7:26:00 PM
From: -	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18137

Nice post, my chart and index study this weekend is moving me in the direction of thinking it's likely we are now setting up for substantive broad correction sometime in the next month... nice analysis of a key issue driving it (plus, the market just plain got ahead of itself...) -Steve

To: Bilow who wrote (645)	6/13/1999 8:29:00 PM
From: Jerry Olson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18137

Hi Carl... quick post about rates.. on P&F, we have and index called the DJBB, Dow Jones 20 Bond index... last Feb, it gave a sell signal, and from that top, has moved almost straight down except for a 1-2 week period where it reversed up and then down again...it looks like it will go lower from here... if/when it reverses up again, we could have a big bond market rally.. albeit..this indicator is very slow moving... as for AG...because i'm older<g>, i have watched this guy in action...people are saying this .25 basis point increase is factored into the markets...oh yeah??? when he raises, if he does....tank city...the street will think 1-2 more are coming and sell this baby off in a heart beat... i seen this before...panic will set in..and the way my P&F charts are setting up..that's exactly what is about to happen... good trading...OJ..