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To: Oblomov who wrote (46766)	6/14/1999 12:18:00 PM
From: BGR	Respond to of 86076

Andrew, I think that your post summarizes the situation beautifully!! Thus, timing the market entails enormous risks for the individual investor IMHO as market crashes are rare. And that is when based on sophisticated models created by the best. Trying to predict an Ito variable using one's gut (even if one has a large gut) is ludicrous IMO. I caught the New Yorker article, which was an entertaining read but more interesting would have been the model itself. That, of course, is a trade secret. (An even more interesting read was the article titled Who Speaks for The Lazy.) Thanks for an excellent post. -BGR.