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Strategies & Market Trends : DAYTRADING Fundamentals -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lifeisgood who wrote (682)	6/14/1999 1:45:00 AM
From: -	Respond to of 18137

<I'm pretty sure a single .25 move has been factored in...> Yes, I would agree with you, at least on a logical basis, given the hot PPI # and the market action, it seems logical to assume that's been built in. I was (previous to this weekend) operating under that assumption that the market has been busy discounting one .25 bump, and if we don't get it, the market would snap-back and rally. Things tend to get trickier than that though, you know. And if you look at what the charts (S&P, Dow, Nasdaq, Inets, Bonds) are now saying (a lost of the best minds that TA/analyze the index's are coming to this conclusion), looks like the major averages are all setting up to test major support levels and will most likely break down through them. If the buyers continue to hold back, or stay half-hearted at best, could be some serious (10-20%+) downside coming... perhaps triggered by the first hike in June. The corrective downside action would be due to "expections of subsequent interest rate hikes", which are probably not yet discounted into current prices. Looking at the Bonds, that is a serious, sustained downtrend going on there... those Bonds (a much larger market) generally lead the stock market around by the nose... it looks like that trend is unlikely to reverse without some major (economic) news. There are some very savvy market players on this thread with a lot of expertise on this stuff... what do they think? This should be an interesting week WRT all this, with all the economic #'s that are about to hit, coming closer in to the Fed meeting. -Steve