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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: E_K_S who wrote (62963)6/14/1999 12:26:00 AM
From: Captain Jack  Respond to of 97611
 
EKS <<"If CPQ is going to compete as both a box maker and integrator, they are going to have to significantly expand their current service model so they can compete (and win contracts) with the likes of CSC ($7 Billion in annual revenues), EDS and IBM.
This is where the real money is going to be made going forward.">>

It looks like being a boxmaker is going to have much more competition from DELL. CPQ looks very weak on all fronts.

Monday June 14, 12:00 am Eastern Time

Dell to unveil new consumer PCs
starting at $899

By Eric Auchard

NEW YORK, June 14 (Reuters) - Dell Computer Corp.
(Nasdaq:DELL - news) said it plans on Tuesday to unveil new
lower-priced personal computers starting at $899, in a bid to step up
its attack on the consumer PC market while overcoming its
resistance to selling PCs at bargain-basement prices.

The Round Rock, Texas company, the top direct seller of PCs, said
it would offer its new Dimension L series PCs running low-cost Intel Corp. (Nasdaq:INTC - news)
Celeron chips at prices starting at $899, or $27 per month under a four-year financing plan.

Dell considers the $899 machines competitive with PCs from other name-brand makers priced below
$599 that typically offer only PC boxes but sacrifice key components like color monitors, multi-year
warranties, software and services.

The new PCs mark the latest careful steps by Dell into the sub-$1,000 desktop market -- the price
level many consumers now expect to pay for a Celeron-based home PC. Most Dell PCs run
high-powered Pentium chips and are priced considerably higher.

''While most of our customers continue to buy performance-class PCs with Pentium III processors,
others want a second, low-cost PC with the service and support Dell is known for,'' Paul Bell, senior
vice president of Dell's home and small business group, said in a statement obtained Sunday.

Until this spring, Dell resisted the industry's move to price PCs below $1,000, focusing instead on sales
of higher-power machines for customers willing to pay more. Rivals Compaq Computer Corp.
(NYSE:CPQ - news) and International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE:IBM - news) offer PCs
ranging as low as $499 to $699.

''This shows that Dell is not willing to get relegated to the high-end of the market and get squeezed out
of the mass market,'' said Van Baker, a PC analyst with market researcher Dataquest, who had been
briefed on Dell's plans.

Dell's push into low-cost PCs marks a bid by the computer maker to step up growth in consumer and
small business markets, each of which represent about 15 percent of total company revenues.
Corporate PC sales constituted the other two-thirds of Dell's $18 billion in annual revenues last year.

As a result of its focus on selling higher performance machines to repeat customers, the average
selling price of a Dell PC remains around $2,300, significantly above its rivals. But in order to tap this
high-volume PC market, Dell is now showing itself willing to join the lower-price fray.

Dell ranked No. 4 in the U.S. consumer market behind Compaq, Gateway Inc. (NYSE:GTW - news)
and Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE:HWP - news) in the first two months of 1999, according to
Trendata, a report on household PC buying by Ziff-Davis market researchers. Dell is the No. 1 seller
of PCs to U.S. small businesses and No. 2 in overall PC sales worldwide, surveys show.

Dataquest's Baker said Dell has a ready audience among its existing customers, who may be in the
market for a second PC, but for which Dell had little to offer them -- until now.

''The loyal Dell following has not had a low-cost PC to buy from Dell,'' he noted of the company's core
customer base.

For $899, a Dimension L400 comes with a 400 megahertz, or million cycle per second, Celeron chip,
and moderate amounts of computer memory and hard disk space. It also includes a compact disk
player, speakers, a Microsoft Windows 98 operating system and the MS Works Suite 99 software for
word processing, graphics and other key functions.

The PC also has an expandable chassis that provides access to internal components for future
upgrades -- in contrast to most sub-$1,000 PCs that are built for one-time use only.

Dell said it will begin taking orders on Tuesday for its new Dimension L series, which include 400
megahertz, 433 megahertz and 466 megahertz Intel Celeron processors.

The company expects to ship the new L series by late July, in line with other PC makers who have
begun announcing similar families of PCs ahead of the back-to-school purchasing season. Last week,
for example, IBM unveiled consumer PCs starting at $799, with monitors, along with higher-priced
notebook PCs.

Dell offered sample set-ups of a 433-megahertz PC priced at $1,230 and a 466-megahertz Celeron
machine loaded with features such as a high-resolution, 15-inch flat panel monitor and a version of
Microsoft office software priced at $2,199.

Like other PC makers, Dell is looking beyond the purchase of the box itself to follow-on sales of
related software, peripheral products and services in order to bolster the ever tightening profit margins
on the lower-priced PCs.

Eventually, many analysts expect Dell to match its rival Gateway by charging for Internet access
services on each PC sold in return for lower-cost, upfront pricing on the PCs.

Further details will be available Tuesday at Dell's web site at dell.com



To: E_K_S who wrote (62963)6/15/1999 11:09:00 PM
From: Salah Mohamed  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 97611
 
Hi Eric ... About the Service Business

>>IMO the current Service Business model is not working and may
require a significant restructuring and .....Rosen may see this too.
I believe Ray Lane has built a more effective service model at
Oracle.<<

I wouldn't go as far as saying the Service Business model is not
working, maybe it isn't working as it should be. Ray Lane would be a
great choice to become the CEO of CPQ. My best guess is that he will
be. Did you observe that the new acting COO was a former ORCL
executive?. Hmmm, maybe there is something cooking here with Ray Lane.

Here are some statistics about the Service Business:

6/15/99 - 1999 VARBUSINESS 500 REPORTS ENORMOUS
GROWTH AMONG INFORMATION-TECHNOLOGY RESELLERS IBM
GLOBAL SERVICES RETAINS NO. 1 Position
MANHASSET, N.Y., Jun 15, 1999 /PRNewswire via COMTEX/

tscn.com
***********

About Storage Business

Here is another interesting article about CPQ storage business:

Monday June 14 8:26 AM ET

Compaq Offers New Storage Strategy

From the article:

Revenues associated with Windows NT storage are expected to grow from $6.2 billion in 1998 to $25.7 billion in 2003, according to an analysis by Dataquest Inc.

Compaq currently holds about half of that market.

Compaq's $3.1 billion in NT storage revenues last year accounted for
about 10 percent of revenues for the entire company, best known for
being the world's largest personal computer maker.

dailynews.yahoo.com

My Comment: It seems to me that the storage business alone accounts
for the total market capitalization of CPQ. From the above, it is
expected that this storage business grows at about 33% annually. This
CPQ storage business is similar to EMC business (EMC revenues in 98
were 4B with annual growth of 30%-35%). Considering that the market
capitalization of EMC is about 50B, CPQ storage business should be
worth about 38B (50Bx3.1B/4.0). The current market capitalization of
CPQ at the current stock price is about 37B ($21 3/16 x 1.75B). It
seems that the valuation of CPQ stock is becoming irrational.
***********

On another note, I listened to the CNBC report about CPQ which
Victor referred to in a couple of posts, and I confirm that Rene San
Miguel (the reporter) stated very clearly that Mike Larson (Sr. VP)
denied that CPQ has inventory problems. Take it for what it is, but I
believe it as I explained in a previous post.

Regards

Salah