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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: shane forbes who wrote (31001)	6/14/1999 8:56:00 AM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Just on CNBC...Merrill Lynch thinks a recovery in japan will benefit semi equip makers CYMI, AMAT, NVLS, and KLAC. Jay

To: shane forbes who wrote (31001)	6/14/1999 10:26:00 AM
From: Tony Viola	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Shane, not a lot of help (zero actually) answering your Q's, but anyone who needs to specify MOS Logic and Micros is a little strange. It's all MOS nowadays baby. Well, a little GaAs. Tony

To: shane forbes who wrote (31001)	6/15/1999 6:14:00 AM
From: shane forbes	Respond to of 70976

Did some digging around: Analog was roughly 20b for 1998. One of the industry pundits predicts 9% growth for Analog in 1999. So let's see from the linked post: Discretes - 7-8% growth [10% of 126 b means ~ 13 b in 1998 sales] Analog - 9% growth [~20b in 1998 sales] MOS Logic - 'faster' than average [SIA says 21 b in 1999] MOS Micro - 'average but DSP's 25% growth expected (industry pundit - agrees with SIA's 4.4b in 1999), MPUs 16%, MCUs 16%, microperipherals ?% [WAG about 38-44 b in combined MOS Micro 1998 sales] MOS Memory - 19% [~22b??? in 1998 sales] I'm short a few billion for 1998 sales but never mind. The key is that with the 1998 sales numbers it is still very difficult to produce an average of 'only' 12.1% for the entire group. It IS possible IF you ignore the side comments about MOS Micro and assume it will do just average (thus MCUs and MPUs have to come in under the average). Then it IS just possible for the slower analog+discrete market to offset the faster growing memory+logic market in 1999.