To: H James Morris who wrote (62293 ) 6/14/1999 4:33:00 AM From: GST Respond to of 164684
James -- the following is a good assessment of the dollar/yen battle. Who do you think is buying the futures overnight? I'll bet its the Japanese government trying to stabilize the yen by buying the US equity futures. < ''A Fed tightening is already factored in. So the focus is at what level the U.S. interest rates will peak,'' said Yukihiko Hashimoto, senior manager at Sanwa Bank Ltd. ''For that reason, the U.S. CPI data and testimony by (Fed Chairman Alan) Greenspan are likely to be very closely watched this week,'' he added. The May U.S. consumer price index (CPI) is scheduled to be released on Wednesday. Greenspan is due to testify on Thursday on monetary policy and the economic outlook before Congress's Joint Economic Committee. ''Past experience shows that rises in U.S. interest rates do not necessarily lead to dollar gains when they coincide with inflation concerns, as such concerns would curtail fund flows into U.S. asset markets,'' said Sumitomo's Sato. Recent rises in Japan's long-term interest rates above 1.5 percent were also likely to slow the transpacific capital flow to the United States from Japan, as Japanese investors would have fewer incentives to buy U.S. bonds, Sato said. Japan's long-term interest rate, as measured by the yield on the 1.4 percent 213th 10-year JGB, stood at 1.630 percent late on Monday, compared with around 1.215 percent a month earlier. In addition to U.S. CPI and Greenspan's testimony, the market will be closely watching BOJ Governor Masaru Hayami's news conference on Wednesday after the robust GDP, dealers said. Even the slightest hint by Hayami that the BOJ might end its zero percent interest rate policy could send the dollar into a tailspin, dealers said. Eisuke Sakakibara, vice finance minister for international affairs, emphasised Tokyo's resolve on the yen on Monday, telling reporters the ministry will prevent any premature yen strength in order to help ensure that the Japanese economy recovers. But depending on this week's U.S. data, the going may get tougher for the tough-talking Japanese authorities. ''Despite heavy intervention, the dollar slowly rose only about three yen today, showing how heavy the dollar's topside is,'' said a senior dealer at a Japanese bank. ''At the moment there are very few dollar buyers apart from the central bank,'' he said.