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To: Carl R. who wrote (46310)	6/14/1999 9:41:00 AM
From: Thomas G. Busillo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

Carl, in a hurry, but here's a quick table. If X% of suppliers are going ape-s**t on production, Y% are going out of business, and Z% have bit growth equal to demand - what happens? It's just for illustrative purposes. Very simple, not even remotely accurate and I guess you can make things look as good or bad as you want depending on the assumptions (i.e. the only thing those assumptions are based on is a cup of yesterday's cold coffee <g>) But FWIW just one way of framing the problem. % supply Y/Y growth 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 60% 125% 60 73.5 90.0 110.2 135.0 165.3 202.5 247.9 303.7 20% 80% 20 23.2 26.8 31.1 36.0 41.7 48.3 55.9 64.8 20% -50% 20 16.8 14.1 11.9 10.0 8.4 7.1 5.9 5.0 TTL supply 100 114.464 132.9642064 156.1799674 184.9689283 220.401343 263.8027474 316.8067248 381.4199067 TTL demand 80% 100 115.8 134.1 155.4 179.9 208.4 241.4 279.6 323.8 difference -1.4 -1.2 0.8 5.0 12.0 22.4 37.2 57.6 % -1.17% -0.88% 0.53% 2.79% 5.75% 9.29% 13.32% 17.80% To say that the people doing that sort of stuff seriously/ for a living have ridiculously more complex breakdowns would be an understatement... ...then again, maybe it depends on the firm <g> Good trading, Tom

To: Carl R. who wrote (46310)	6/14/1999 9:50:00 AM
From: DJBEINO	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53903

FACTBOX-Key facts about Asia's chip makers SEOUL, June 13 (Reuters) - Asian companies are dominating the world memory chip market and the following are key facts about the region's major chip makers, compiled by Reuters (in US$ mln, cents, percent): (US$1 = 1,168 won, 118 yen, 32.5 Taiwan dollars) ______________________________________________________ 1999 1998 1997 forecasts actual actual ______________________________________________________ SALES REVENUE (million U.S. dollars) Hyundai Electronics ~ 3,781.7 2,988.9 Industries Co LG Semicon Co ~ 2,393.8 1,718.3 NEC Corp ~ 31,237.3 34,542.4 Samsung Electronics ~ 17,195.2 15,809.1 Co Taiwan Semiconductor ~ 1,545.6 1,351.9 Manufacturing Corp Toshiba Corp ~ 31,355.9 32,389.8 United Microelectronics ~ 565.9 770.9 Corp ______________________________________________________ NET ATTRIBUTABLE (million U.S. dollars) Hyundai 18.3 -124.2 -157.1 LG 35.8 39.5 -248.0 NEC ~ -1,189.0 343.3 Samsung 577.1 268.2 105.7 Taiwan Semiconductor 622.1 472.1 552.6 Toshiba ~ 280.1 509.6 United 238.1 135.6 299.7 ______________________________________________________ EARNINGS PER SHARE (cents) Hyundai 16 -109 -283 LG 32 139 -356 NEC 14 -74 22 Samsung 420 215 106 Taiwan Semiconductor 10 ~ ~ Toshiba 6 -4 9 United 4 ~ ~ ______________________________________________________ WORLD SEMICON MARKET SHARE (percent) Hyundai ~ 1.3 1.3 LG ~ 1.1 1.2 NEC ~ 6.0 6.9 Samsung ~ 3.5 4.0 Taiwan Semiconductor ~ ~ ~ Toshiba ~ 4.3 4.9 United ~ 0.2 0.3 All Asian companies ~ 37.1 40.8 ______________________________________________________ WORLD MEMORY MARKET SHARE (percent) Hyundai ~ 7.3 6.2 LG ~ 5.3 4.8 NEC ~ 9.1 10.4 Samsung ~ 15.4 14.9 Taiwan Semiconductor ~ ~ ~ Toshiba ~ 5.0 4.8 United ~ 0.0 0.0 All Asian companies ~ 68.5 67.8 ______________________________________________________ WORLD DRAM MARKET SHARE (percent) Hyundai ~ 11.4 9.0 LG ~ 7.9 6.7 NEC ~ 11.0 12.1 Samsung ~ 18.6 18.8 Taiwan Semiconductor ~ ~ ~ Toshiba ~ 5.0 5.0 United ~ ~ ~ All Asian companies ~ 78.5 77.1 ______________________________________________________ WORLD MARKET SCALE (US$ bln on average exchange rates) Total semicon revenue 153 136.2 147.2 Memory revenue ~ 24.6 31.0 DRAM revenue ~ 15.3 20.7 ______________________________________________________ SOURCES: Each company, Barra's The Estimate Directory, IBES International, Dataquest, Internet sites NOTE: ~ indicates data is unavailable, fiscal year ends on March 31 the next year for Japanese companies. biz.yahoo.com