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Pastimes : The Naked Truth - Big Kahuna a Myth -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: NickSE who wrote (46895)	6/14/1999 10:13:00 PM
From: NickSE	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 86076

...Those are the signs that are very obvious to the herd. That should do it for furnishing a "hook" to pull them in the wrong direction for a while. We still are deferring to our example of how this year's stock market action is following last year's model so closely. That model told us that a major top was going to occur in most stocks in April, and that a fake-out top in the widely followed indices would occur around May 12th (hit it perfectly). So if this year's market is going to remain in last year's mode, it would mean that a short-term bottom would occur in the next couple of days. Last year the low was made on June 15, 1998. If it does follow that model once again, we suspect that the next few weeks will see a bounce-back, until about the third week of July, driving some aspects of the market into new high territory. Even in the times that these historic examples do repeat, they never are exactly the same. That would be too easy. So as we look for clues of how this year's example might deviate from last year, we see that last year the big-cap indices moved to new highs in July, but the broad market lagged far behind. But the evidence this year points to a new leader. If the rally does occur, we would suspect that it would push the broad market indices such as the Value-Line Arithmetic to a new high, but the S&P 500 and NASDAQ would lag far behind... wheatfirst.com