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Technology Stocks : Safeguard Scientifics SFE -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom Bunge who wrote (3083)	6/14/1999 3:38:00 PM
From: michael r potter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4467

At the beginning of the year, money managers decided to buy AOL after not owning it in '98 and underperforming. They vowed not to"not get AOLd again" Well, now having loaded up on AOL despite valuation "problems", they are getting "AOLd again", not in ways they imagined. My guess is that despite margin difficulties, a lot of strung out internet accounts were hanging on by a thread until today. This should push quite a few over the wall both psychologically and really [in terms of actually getting the dreaded call] Many I-Net stocks are around their 200 day MA an area of possible support, but it is the end of the quarter the next two weeks, so portfolio managers will tend to push out underperformers. Combine that with the impairment of/from Internet heavy margin accounts, and still could be more trouble. The stocks are very oversold, but valuations are no support from any reasonable measure, despite the % declines that have already occurred. The cyclicals and oils graze peacefully, oblivious to the sector carnage. A dangerous time to either initiate long or short positions in Internet stocks it seems to me. Rallies might be sharp but brief. Has to be some base building after this amount of damage. SFEs next support around $55, the 200 day MA. Mike

To: Tom Bunge who wrote (3083)	6/16/1999 10:55:00 AM
From: Tom Bunge	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4467

Couple weeks ago, someone made an interesting point about the Summer rally in techs basically predicated upon MSFT's own clear and unambiguous leading the charge. From a TA or more general standpoint, what would be the criteria used in assessing that take-off of MSFT; when could one say "that's it; this is what we were looking for"? Price recovery? Volume? Any particular entry point signal? Once again, I think it is an interesting concept, which naturally makes a lot of sense ... what would you say are the triggers? I do not happen to remember the name of the member who posted - my apologies - and hence anybody's answer, Mike's included, would be welcome. Thanks - Tom