Europe EEC Will go flat rate for Telephones/ISP or throw away 1% GDP E-Commerce; USA E-Commerce was $301 Billion (for sure, possibly $350B Impact total) which equals 1% USA Gross Domestic Product GDP. Europe will not throw that away. This is another reason why they will not stand for Greenspan's feeble attempt to paint himself out of the box at the FED and raise rates, his mistake may have been to lower rates 75 basis points (0.75%) last year to bail out failing, CORRUPT, BRIBERY RIDDEN ASIAN BANKS AND GOVERNMENTS, but to do so now, to raise rates, which only helps IMPORTERS (NOTE TODAY JAPAN SUPPORTED THE DOLLAR TO KEEP THE YEN WEAK, that is cheap, to prevent US "Cheaper" Imports (US EXPORTS) from having a price advantage and "RUIN" poor little JAPAN's recovery. EUROPE will NOT stand for this, Europe will not stand by while the USA kills off their BOOM which is just starting, as they start the internet and modernization by high tech that increased our productivity, that Greenspan wants to cool off with the FED following the Post-Rubin Era Treasury and raise rates, above the recent jump in the 30 year bond to 6.11% towards 6.36, 6.6, 7.0% as all the gleeful doomsayers have come out of the woodwork today to predict on this again LOW VOLUME DAY. Today approx. 600M shares on a usual 1B share day, allowed low volume to skew and statistically shake the market moer than high volume would have. When there is high volume, it usually has the normal human effect of seeking higher profits, unlike lower volume which tends usually (not always) to psuh the short selling we have been witnessing these last few days. I can tell you this, We have now reached a new era, in which the FED can and may be shoved aside, if it goes to far to kill off a boom, by artificially creating a bust in the USA to bail out ASIA. Europe will not stand for it. 325+ Million Europeans are just as big or bigger a market especially for growth, than the 250+Million USA population base. The psychology here is to spread, or pre-spred fear, to bascially get YOU to panic and basically make a CONTRIBUTION to the ASIA CAUSE, the 10% or so drop in AOL is illustrative, the shorts made out today. They are among the 3% of the 8.5 Million Day Traders, but are 60% of the 25% daytrader share of the NASDAQ daily volume, and on a low volume day, this 60% of 25% (15%) can cause more than a 10% drop. You are basically saying okay, I'll give you 10% of MY VALUE of my stock. Don't do it. It is short term, and will not survive the end of the month, if you can out wait the FED throwing its GreenMail, I mean Greenspan two cents worth in at the end of the month (29th). A rebuff can be done for the first time in recent history, the FED can only increase its monetary supply by loaning out on prime rates etc., and increasing those rates, to THROW the MONEY AT ASIA, where it will do no good except for US Importers, and not US Exporters, manufacturers and US jobs and the US Boom markets including the stock market. For the first time in history, the US Markets "Could" dictate to the FED by keeping faith, and not allowing the cooling off, which is simply to not panic, and wait. TIME is MONEY. Two weeks can do it. If we do not, European Central Banks will be right there, I guarantee you, they will not accept what Greenspan is threatening to do. If you want to see the Euro replace the US Dollar, much the way the German Mark and the Swiss Franc almost did so during the hyper inflationary period of the 70s/80s oil embargo days, go ahead, CONTRIBUTE TO THE CAUSE and SELL YOURSELF SHORT.
The SHORT SELLERS have sold shares they do not have, they are "Borrowing your shares", and hope you will panic and SELL so that they can buy them and make good on their SHORTS at the lower price. If they can't get them at the lower price, they will have to pay the higher price, and since this 3% of the market, is 60% of the Daytraders in general, (The vast majority of the high frequency traders being the ones who indulge in SHORTS) then they can afford the loss beter than you. Hold out and wait is my advise, IMHO you will be glad you did. Instead of panic selling, put the screws in them and the FED by DOUBLING DOWN or AVERAGE BUYING DOWN, that is when the stock drops, buy more so your average price (And risk of breaking even on the upswing recovery, which is sure to occur) is lower. A SALE is a taxable transaction, a BUY or DOUBLING DOWN is a non-tax transaction and this should figure into your thinking also. I am sure my words will fall on the ears of few, but, thats all I can say or do. I for one am using this as a buyin opportunity, DOUBLING DOWN several times, the secret of the market is to BUY LOW and SELL HIGH. Not take a loss. And I consider AOL to mean "ACCUMULATE ON LOWS".
I am,
Truly yours,
-Crystal ball
P.S. <Dixon's is reportedly going to float a> freeserve.com <offering soon, with an estimated market cap of $750 million to $3 billion.< You are right, they will, and they will be successful, and AOL is doing the same, making it free, which until Europe does flat rate (Free Local Calls) is the best that can be done, but rest assured, once the politicians see the net income (1% Increased GDP from E-Commerce, that is taxable at VAT tax rates, they will go ahead and deregulate even faster than the USA due to the parlimentary i.e. prime minister and cabinet form of government they have, with no hold ups in two houses (Senate and Congressional House of Representatives) plus presidential veto, and Federal REd tape that the USA has, they can cut the red tape and expedite the whole thing fast, once they see the political and economic reality which I think they have seen already, and they need the extra productivity, more so than we did.
Yeah, Dixon's Freeserve.com would be a good buy too. But AOl does the United Kingdom (Britain) and Germany, and that means the rest of Europe soon. |
